kansas city chiefs

Team Overview

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 NFL season as three-time defending AFC champions, led by the dynamic trio of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Brett Veach. Despite a Super Bowl LIX loss to the Eagles, their roster remains elite, bolstered by a savvy 2025 draft and key free-agent signings. For survivor pool players, the Chiefs are a premium pick, but their tough schedule and high future value demand strategic timing. This analysis dives into their roster, draft, metrics, and schedule to pinpoint the best weeks to lock in Kansas City for your pool.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes (4,183 yards, 27 TDs in 2024), Carson Wentz (backup). Mahomes remains the NFL’s gold standard, with elite arm talent and decision-making. His ability to extend plays makes him a survivor pool safety net.
  • Running Backs: Isiah Pacheco (935 yards, 7 TDs in 2024), Elijah Mitchell (free agent signing), Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith (rookie). Pacheco’s explosiveness pairs with Mitchell’s reliability, but injuries have tested depth. Smith adds special teams upside.
  • Wide Receivers: Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice (24 catches in 3 games before 2024 injury), Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jalen Royals (rookie). Rice and Brown’s return from injuries makes this group lethal, with Worthy’s speed and Royals’ run-after-catch ability adding depth.
  • Tight Ends: Travis Kelce (1,000+ yards in 2024, 8th straight season), Noah Gray. Kelce remains Mahomes’ go-to target, though his age (36) raises durability questions. Gray is a solid backup.
  • Offensive Line: LT Jaylon Moore (free agent), RT Jawaan Taylor, G Trey Smith (franchise tag), G/C Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, Josh Simmons (rookie). The line struggled in the Super Bowl, but Moore and Simmons bolster the tackle spots. Humphrey and Smith anchor the interior.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: Edge: George Karlaftis (8 sacks in 2024), Mike Danna, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Charles Omenihu, Ashton Gillotte (rookie). Interior: Chris Jones (31, still elite), Mike Pennel Jr., Jerry Tillery, Omarr Norman-Lott (rookie). Jones is the cornerstone, but depth is thin after losing Tershawn Wharton and Derrick Nnadi. Rookies add upside.
  • Linebackers: Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, Leo Chenal, Jeff Bassa (rookie). A veteran group with strong tackling and coverage skills, though Bassa’s impact may be limited to special teams initially.
  • Secondary: CB Trent McDuffie, Kristian Fulton (free agent), Nohl Williams (rookie), Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams. S Justin Reid, Mike Edwards (free agent), Chamarri Conner. McDuffie and Fulton form a strong CB duo, but depth at corner and safety is a concern with expiring contracts.
  • Special Teams: K Harrison Butker (94.1% FG in 2024), P Matt Araiza, KR/PR Jalen Royals (rookie). Butker’s reliability and Araiza’s booming punts are assets. Royals could shine as a returner.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 32: OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State) – Athletic left tackle with recovery from a 2024 patellar injury. Potential starter to protect Mahomes.
  • Round 2, Pick 63: DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee) – Disruptive interior rusher, adds depth behind Chris Jones.
  • Round 3, Pick 66: DE Ashton Gillotte (Louisville) – High-motor edge rusher to boost pass rush rotation.
  • Round 3, Pick 95: CB Nohl Williams (California) – Versatile corner with special teams value. Likely a rotational piece.
  • Round 4, Pick 133: WR Jalen Royals (Utah State) – Speedy receiver with RAC ability, could contribute as a returner.
  • Round 5, Pick 156: LB Jeff Bassa (Oregon) – Depth linebacker, likely special teams contributor.
  • Round 7, Pick 228: RB Brashard Smith (SMU) – Explosive back for depth and special teams.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense:

  • Yards: 16th (343.2 YPG)
  • Points: 12th (24.5 PPG)
  • DVOA: 9th
  • Passing DVOA: 9th
  • Rushing DVOA: 14th
  • EPA/Play: 6th
  • EPA/Dropback: 11th
  • EPA/Rush: 5th
  • Pass TDs: 9th (27)
  • Rush TDs: 21st (12) Despite injuries to Rice, Brown, and Pacheco, the Chiefs’ offense was efficient, driven by Mahomes’ playmaking and Reid’s scheming.


Defense:

  • Yards Allowed: 15th (340.8 YPG)
  • Points Allowed: 10th (21.2 PPG)
  • DVOA: 8th
  • Pass Defense DVOA: 7th
  • Rush Defense DVOA: 12th Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive scheme, led by Chris Jones and McDuffie, kept the unit stout despite depth issues.


2025 Outlook: With Rice and Brown back, the offense should climb into the top 10 in yards and points. The defense needs rookies to step up to maintain its edge, especially in the trenches.


2025 Schedule Analysis

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, 9/7 Los Angeles Chargers Home 8:00 PM ET, YouTube 72% Moderate: Home opener against a divisional foe with Justin Herbert. Risky due to Chargers’ talent.
2 Sun, 9/14 Philadelphia Eagles Away 4:25 PM ET, FOX 55% Poor: Super Bowl rematch on the road against a top NFC team. Avoid.
3 Sun, 9/21 New York Giants Home 8:20 PM ET, NBC 78% Good: Giants’ rebuilding roster makes this a strong home pick.
4 Mon, Sep 29 Baltimore Ravens Away 8:15 PM ET, ABC 52% Poor: Tough road game against a playoff-caliber Ravens team.
5 Mon, 10/6 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 8:15 PM ET, ESPN 80% Excellent: Jaguars’ inconsistency and Chiefs’ home dominance make this a prime pick.
6 Sun, Oct 12 Detroit Lions Home 8:20 PM ET, NBC 65% Moderate: Lions are a playoff threat, but Chiefs at home are tough.
7 Sun, 10/19 Las Vegas Raiders Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 75% Good: Divisional game, but Raiders’ roster gaps favor Chiefs at home.
8 Mon, Oct 27 Washington Commanders Away 8:15 PM ET, ESPN 60% Poor: Commanders’ young talent and home field make this a trap.
9 Sun, 11/2 Buffalo Bills Home 4:25 PM ET, CBS 62% Moderate: Bills are a tough AFC foe, but home advantage helps.
10 Sun, Nov 9 Pittsburgh Steelers Home 8:20 PM ET, NBC 70% Good: Steelers’ offense may struggle against Spagnuolo’s defense.
11 Sun, 11/16 Denver Broncos Away 4:25 PM ET, CBS 58% Poor: Divisional road game with upset potential from Bo Nix.
12 Sun, Nov 23 Indianapolis Colts Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 77% Excellent: Colts’ inconsistent offense faces a tough Chiefs defense.
13 Sun, 11/30 Dallas Cowboys Home 4:30 PM ET, CBS 68% Moderate: Cowboys’ talent makes this trickier, but Chiefs at home are favored.
14 Sun, 12/7 Houston Texans Home 8:20 PM ET, NBC 70% Good: Texans are rising, but Chiefs’ home prime-time edge is strong.
15 Sun, 12/14 Los Angeles Chargers Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 60% Poor: Divisional road game with Herbert is a risky pick.
16 Sun, 12/21 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 82% Excellent: Titans’ rebuilding roster makes this a safe home pick.
17 Thu, 12/25 Denver Broncos Away 8:15 PM ET, PRIME 55% Poor: Short-week road game in a tough divisional matchup.
18 Sat, 1/4 Las Vegas Raiders Away 1:00 PM ET, TBD 65% Moderate: Road divisional game, but Chiefs should handle a weaker Raiders team.
A screenshot of an app called the survivor pool calculator

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • The Chiefs’ offense ranked 6th in EPA/play despite missing Rice and Brown for most of the season, showcasing Mahomes’ ability to elevate a depleted unit.
  • Defensively, they ranked 8th in DVOA, with Chris Jones generating 10.5 sacks and McDuffie locking down top receivers.
  • Their 10-7 record was impacted by injuries and a tough schedule (2nd hardest in 2023 per ESPN FPI).
  • Butker’s 94.1% field goal accuracy was a clutch factor in close games, critical for survivor pool confidence.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Chiefs are a Top-Tier Anchor for survivor pools due to their home dominance (7-2 at Arrowhead in 2024) and Mahomes’ reliability. However, their high future value (most pools pick them early) and tough schedule mean you must time their selection carefully. Save them for weeks with weaker opponents to maximize value and avoid wasting them in risky matchups. Their late-season home games against rebuilding teams are ideal.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home, 80% win probability): The Jaguars’ inconsistent offense and turnover-prone QB play make this a safe home pick for Kansas City.
  • Week 12 vs. Indianapolis Colts (Home, 77% win probability): The Colts’ offense struggles against Spagnuolo’s schemes, and Arrowhead’s crowd will be a factor.
  • Week 16 vs. Tennessee Titans (Home, 82% win probability): The Titans’ rebuilding roster is overmatched against the Chiefs’ firepower at home.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 2 at Philadelphia Eagles: A Super Bowl rematch on the road against a top NFC team is a survivor pool landmine.
  • Week 4 at Baltimore Ravens: A tough AFC road game against a playoff-caliber team with Lamar Jackson is too risky.
  • Week 11 at Denver Broncos: Divisional road games are always tricky, and Bo Nix’s growth could spark an upset.
  • Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert’s talent and a divisional road matchup make this a trap.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Home vs. Road Splits: The Chiefs are significantly better at Arrowhead (7-2 in 2024) than on the road (3-5). Prioritize home games for survivor picks.
  • Injury Risks: Monitor Kelce and Pacheco’s health, as their absence could impact offensive output. Rice and Brown’s return should mitigate this.
  • Divisional Games: The Chiefs face a tough AFC West with Herbert, Nix, and Geno Smith. Avoid divisional road games (Weeks 11, 15, 17) due to upset potential.
  • Future Value: The Chiefs are a popular pick, so using them early (e.g., Week 1) burns high future value. Save them for Weeks 5, 12, or 16 when other top teams face tougher matchups.


Final Verdict

The Kansas City Chiefs are a survivor pool juggernaut, thanks to Mahomes, a reloaded offense, and a stout defense. Their 2025 schedule offers several prime picking spots, particularly at home against weaker opponents like the Jaguars, Colts, and Titans. However, their high future value and tough early-season matchups mean you should avoid burning them early. Strategically, Weeks 5, 12, and 16 are your best bets to leverage their dominance while preserving other top teams for later. Lock in the Chiefs at home against beatable foes, and you’ll have a strong anchor for your pool.

  • When is the best week to pick the Chiefs in my 2025 survivor pool?

    Week 16 vs. the Titans (82% win probability) is the safest bet. The Titans’ rebuilding roster and Kansas City’s home dominance make it a low-risk pick. Weeks 5 (Jaguars) and 12 (Colts) are also strong options.

  • Should I avoid the Chiefs in divisional games for survivor pools?

    Yes, especially road games. Weeks 11 (at Broncos), 15 (at Chargers), and 17 (at Broncos) carry upset risks due to divisional familiarity and talented QBs like Herbert and Nix. Stick to home divisional games like Week 7 vs. the Raiders.

  • How do the Chiefs’ 2025 draft picks impact survivor pool decisions?

    The additions of OT Josh Simmons and DT Omarr Norman-Lott strengthen the trenches, boosting Mahomes’ protection and the pass rush. This makes the Chiefs more reliable in high-leverage games, especially at home, where their rookies can shine

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