houston texans

Updated June 17, 2025

Team Overview

The Houston Texans enter the 2025 NFL season as back-to-back AFC South champions, driven by quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans. Bolstered by a revamped offensive line, a formidable defense, and the recent signing of four-time Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb, their backfield is now a dynamic force alongside Joe Mixon. For survivor pool players, the Texans present a compelling mix of safe home games and challenging divisional matchups, where strategic timing is key. This analysis explores their roster, schedule, and survivor pool fit to guide your picks.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: C.J. Stroud (4,108 yards, 23 TDs in 2024), Davis Mills (backup). Stroud’s sophomore slump (63.2% completion, 7.0 YPA) was marred by injuries and a shaky O-line, but his arm talent and poise remain elite.
  • Running Backs: Joe Mixon (1,015 yards, 12 TDs in 2024), Nick Chubb (332 yards, 3 TDs in 8 games in 2024), Dameon Pierce, J.J. Taylor, Woody Marks (rookie). Mixon’s 2.92 yards after contact per rush showcases his durability, while Chubb, a four-time Pro Bowler signed to a one-year, $2.5M deal (up to $5M), adds proven firepower despite recent injuries (knee in 2023, foot in 2024). The Chubb-Mixon duo forms a punishing tandem, with Pierce and rookie Marks providing depth.
  • Wide Receivers: Nico Collins (1,097 yards, 8 TDs), John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Jaylin Noel (rookie), Kris Higgins (rookie). Losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell’s injury concerns prompted draft investments in Noel and Higgins for depth.
  • Tight Ends: Dalton Schultz (635 yards, 5 TDs), Cade Stover, rookie TE. Schultz remains a reliable target, but the rookie addition aims to stretch the field.
  • Offensive Line: LT Cam Robinson (free agent), LG Laken Tomlinson (free agent), C Juice Scruggs, RG Shaq Mason, RT Trent Brown (free agent), Aireontae Ersery (rookie). The O-line, a 2024 weak point (22nd in pass block win rate, 31st in run block win rate), was overhauled with veterans and Ersery to protect Stroud.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: DE Denico Autry (3 sacks in 10 games), DT Tim Settle Jr. (5 sacks), DT Sheldon Rankins (6 sacks in 2023), DE Mario Edwards Jr., rookie DT. The Texans ranked 4th in yards allowed per carry (3.9) and 11th in negative run rate, with Settle and Rankins anchoring a stout front.
  • Linebackers: Christian Harris, Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o. Harris’s speed and Al-Shaair’s tackling (104 tackles in 2024) form a versatile core, though depth is thin.
  • Secondary: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (5 INTs), CB Kamari Lassiter, S Jalen Pitre, S Calen Bullock (5 INTs as a rookie), rookie CB. The secondary is a strength, with Stingley and Bullock forming a ball-hawking duo.
  • Special Teams: K Ka’imi Fairbairn (89.5% FG in 2024), P Tommy Townsend. Fairbairn’s consistency and Townsend’s punting (46.1 avg) are reliable.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 2, Pick 42: WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State) – 1,194 yards, 4.39 40-yard dash. Burner to stretch defenses.
  • Round 2, Pick 59: OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota) – Big Ten OL of the Year, allowed 1 sack in 398 pass-block snaps.
  • Round 3, Pick 86: WR Kris Higgins (Iowa State) – 1,183 yards, 9 TDs. Big-bodied (6’4”) target for Stroud.
  • Round 3, Pick 97: RB Ashton Marks (Mississippi State) – 1,133 rushing yards, 261 catches in college. Dual-threat backup for Mixon.
  • Round 4, Pick 123: CB Eddie Reid (Penn State) – 5 INTs in college, including a pick-six. Depth for a strong secondary.
  • Round 5, Pick 165: DT (undisclosed). Adds rotational depth to a solid D-line.
  • Round 6, Pick 189: S (undisclosed). Depth for Bullock and Pitre.
  • Round 7, Pick 238: QB (undisclosed). Developmental prospect behind Stroud.
  • Round 7, Pick 249: TE (undisclosed). Adds versatility to the TE room.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

  • Offense: Ranked 14th in points scored (22.7 PPG), 17th in total yards (337.2 YPG). Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards were undercut by 52 sacks (2nd-most) and a 38.6% pressure rate (2nd-highest). Mixon’s 1,015 rushing yards and Nico Collins’s 1,097 receiving yards were bright spots, but the O-line’s 58% pass block win rate (22nd) and 68% run block win rate (31st) held them back.
  • Defense: Ranked 11th in points allowed (21.1 PPG), 6th in yards allowed (316.8 YPG). Excelled against the run (4th in yards per carry at 3.9) but middling in pass defense (14th, 218.5 YPG). Stingley and Bullock’s 10 combined INTs fueled a +7 turnover differential.
  • 2025 Outlook: The O-line overhaul (Robinson, Tomlinson, Brown, Ersery) should reduce Stroud’s sack total, boosting offensive efficiency. Defensively, the Texans’ run-stopping prowess and ball-hawking secondary make them a tough out, especially at home.


2025 Houston Texans Schedule Analysis

The Texans have the 25th-easiest schedule based on projected opponent win totals, offering survivor pool opportunities but with divisional and prime-time traps. Below is a week-by-week breakdown with win probabilities (based on Vegas odds and historical trends) and survivor pool fit.

Week Day, Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability % Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, Sep 7 Los Angeles Rams Away 4:25 PM, CBS 55% Poor: Road game against a playoff contender with a potent offense. Risky early pick.
2 Sun, Sep 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Away 7:00 PM, ESPN 60% Moderate: Texans’ defense could stifle Baker Mayfield, but road primetime games are dicey.
3 Sun, Sep 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 PM, CBS 70% Good: Home divisional game against a Jaguars team with QB uncertainty. Solid early pick.
4 Sun, Sep 28 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 PM, CBS 75% Top-Tier: Titans’ rebuilding offense faces a tough Texans D at home. Prime survivor pick.
5 Sun, Oct 5 Baltimore Ravens Home 1:00 PM, CBS 45% Avoid: Ravens have owned Texans (6 straight wins, including 31-2 in 2024). Bad matchup.
6 Sun, Oct 12 Los Angeles Rams Away 1:00 PM, FOX 50% Poor: Second Rams game in six weeks; road games against McVay’s schemes are tough.
7 Mon, Oct 20 Seattle Seahawks Away 10:00 PM, ESPN 48% Avoid: Late-night road game against a physical Seahawks team. High variance.
8 Sun, Oct 26 San Francisco 49ers Home 1:00 PM, FOX 52% Moderate: Niners’ roster reset makes this winnable, but Purdy’s mobility is a concern.
9 Sun, Nov 2 Denver Broncos Home 1:00 PM, CBS 68% Good: Broncos’ QB uncertainty (Bo Nix) and Texans’ home dominance make this a strong pick.
10 Sun, Nov 9 Houston Texans Away 1:00 PM, CBS - -
11 Sun, Nov 16 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 PM, FOX 78% Top-Tier: Repeat matchup against a weaker Titans team at home. Elite survivor option.
12 Thu, Nov 20 Buffalo Bills Away 8:15 PM, PRIME 40% Avoid: Josh Allen and Buffalo’s potent offense in a primetime road game. Dangerous pick.
13 Sun, Nov 30 Indianapolis Colts Home 1:00 PM, CBS 65% Good: Divisional home game against a Colts team with a revamped but unproven D.
14 Sun, Dec 7 Kansas City Chiefs Home 8:20 PM, NBC 38% Avoid: Mahomes and the Chiefs are a survivor pool killer, even at home.
15 Sun, Dec 14 Arizona Cardinals Home 1:00 PM, FOX 70% Good: Cardinals’ inconsistent offense faces a tough Texans D at home. Strong pick.
16 Sun, Dec 21 Las Vegas Raiders Home 4:25 PM, CBS 72% Top-Tier: Raiders’ QB woes and Texans’ home strength make this a near-lock.
17 Sun, Dec 28 Los Angeles Chargers Home 1:00 PM, TBD 60% Moderate: Chargers’ physicality under Harbaugh is a challenge, but home advantage helps.
18 Sat, Jan 4 Indianapolis Colts Away 1:00 PM, TBD 55% Poor: Road divisional games late in the season are unpredictable. Avoid.
A screenshot of an app called the survivor pool calculator

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • Offensive Struggles: Stroud’s 52 sacks and 38.6% pressure rate were among the league’s worst, highlighting the O-line’s issues. The trade of Laremy Tunsil was a shock, but additions like Cam Robinson and Aireontae Ersery aim to stabilize the unit.
  • Defensive Strength: The Texans’ run defense (3.9 yards per carry, 4th) and +7 turnover differential were elite, with Stingley and Bullock snagging 10 INTs combined.
  • Home Dominance: Houston went 6-2 at home in 2024, with a +4.5-point differential in home games compared to -1.2 on the road.
  • Divisional Edge: The Texans swept the Titans and split with the Colts and Jaguars, showing they handle AFC South foes well at home.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Texans are a Top-Tier Anchor for survivor pools, thanks to their favorable home schedule, defensive prowess, and a now-formidable backfield with Chubb and Mixon. Their 25th-easiest schedule features winnable home games against rebuilding teams like the Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders. The Chubb-Mixon tandem enhances offensive reliability, increasing confidence in these picks. However, prime-time matchups (Weeks 5, 12, 14) against elite AFC teams (Ravens, Bills, Chiefs) are traps. Save the Texans for home games against sub-.500 projected teams, and avoid burning them early on road or high-variance games. Their bye week (likely Week 10) offers flexibility for late-season matchups.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans (Home, 75% win probability): The Titans’ offense, led by a shaky Will Levis or Mason Rudolph, faces a Texans defense that thrives against the run. Houston’s 6-2 home record in 2024 makes this a near-lock.
  • Week 11 vs. Tennessee Titans (Home, 78% win probability): A repeat divisional matchup at NRG Stadium. The Titans’ rebuilding roster and Houston’s home dominance (3-0 vs. Titans since 2023) make this a safe pick.
  • Week 16 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Home, 72% win probability): The Raiders’ QB instability and Houston’s strong home defense (11th in points allowed) make this a late-season gem.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Home): Baltimore’s 6-0 streak against Houston, including a 31-2 rout in 2024, makes this a dangerous pick despite the home setting.
  • Week 12 vs. Buffalo Bills (Away): Josh Allen’s explosive offense and Buffalo’s 7-1 home record in 2024 make this a primetime trap.
  • Week 14 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Home): Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are a survivor pool killer, with a 21% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Avoid burning the Texans here.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Divisional Familiarity: The Texans face AFC South foes six times (Jaguars, Titans, Colts twice each). Their 4-2 divisional record in 2024 suggests home games are safer, but road games (e.g., Week 18 at Colts) are risky due to familiarity and late-season stakes.
  • Home vs. Road Splits: Houston’s +4.5-point differential at home vs. -1.2 on the road screams “pick them at NRG Stadium.” Avoid road games unless the opponent is bottom-tier (e.g., Week 2 vs. Buccaneers).
  • Injury Watch: Monitor Stroud’s health and the O-line’s cohesion. Injuries to Diggs and Dell crushed the passing game in 2024, and the new O-line needs time to gel.
  • Future Value: The Texans’ high future value (top-tier AFC team) means you should save them for Weeks 4, 11, or 16 rather than burning them early (e.g., Week 3 vs. Jaguars) when other elite teams are available.


Final Verdict

The Houston Texans are a survivor pool powerhouse in 2025, thanks to a favorable home schedule, a revamped O-line, a defense that feasts on weaker offenses, and a bolstered backfield with Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. Weeks 4, 11, and 16 vs. the Titans and Raiders are your safest bets, offering high win probabilities and low future value conflicts. Avoid prime-time traps against the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs, and steer clear of road divisional games. With strategic timing, the Texans can carry you deep into your pool. Lock them in at home against rebuilding teams, and you’ll be in great shape.

  • What are the best weeks to pick the Houston Texans in a 2025 NFL survivor pool?

    Weeks 4, 11, and 16 vs. the Titans (home) and Raiders (home) are prime picks. Houston’s home dominance (6-2 in 2024) and these opponents’ weak offenses (Titans ranked 27th in points, Raiders 25th) make them safe bets.

  • Should I avoid the Texans in divisional games for survivor pools?

    Not always—home divisional games (Weeks 3, 4, 11, 13) are winnable due to Houston’s 4-2 AFC South record in 2024. Avoid road divisional games (Week 18 at Colts) due to familiarity and late-season unpredictability.

  • How does the Texans’ 2025 offensive line impact survivor pool picks?

    The O-line’s 2024 struggles (52 sacks allowed) were addressed with veterans (Robinson, Tomlinson, Brown) and rookie Ersery. Improved protection for Stroud boosts win odds in home games (Weeks 4, 11, 16), making them safer picks.

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