Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Team Overview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter 2025 as four-time defending NFC South champions, coming off a 10-7 season and a Wild Card loss in 2024. With Baker Mayfield locked in, a loaded receiving corps, and a bolstered defense, they aim for a fifth straight division title. Their schedule includes tough road games but favorable home matchups, making them a strong survivor pool option. Expect 10-12 wins as they leverage their top-five offense and improved secondary.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (4,500 yards, 41 TDs in 2024, career year), Kyle Trask, Jake Pratt (2025 UDFA). Mayfield’s consistency drives the offense.
  • Running Backs: Bucky Irving (1,122 yards, Pro Bowl alternate), Rachaad White (613 yards), Sean Tucker, D.J. Williams. Irving’s explosiveness complements White’s pass-catching.
  • Wide Receivers: Mike Evans (1,000+ yards, 11th straight season), Chris Godwin (post-ankle injury recovery), Emeka Egbuka (2025 1st-round pick), Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson (2025 7th-round pick), Russell Shepard. Deepest WR group in the NFL.
  • Tight Ends: Cade Otton, Payne Durham, Devin Culp, Tanner Tuala. Otton is a reliable TE1, but new OC Josh Grizzard may reduce TE targets.
  • Offensive Line: Tristan Wirfs (Pro Bowler), Graham Barton, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke, Sua Opeta. Elite unit, though depth is a concern after injuries in 2024.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: Edge: Haason Reddick (prove-it deal), Yaya Diaby, David Walker (2025 4th-round pick), Elijah Roberts (2025 5th-round pick). Interior: Vita Vea (Pro Bowler), Calijah Kancey, Logan Hall. Vea and Kancey anchor a fierce front.
  • Linebackers: Lavonte David (age 35), Anthony Walker Jr., SirVocea Dennis, Deion Jones. David’s leadership is key, but depth and age are risks.
  • Secondary: CB: Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison (2025 2nd-round pick), Jacob Parrish (2025 3rd-round pick). S: Antoine Winfield Jr. (All-Pro), Tykee Smith, Christian Izien. Revamped with speed and ball skills.
  • Special Teams: K Chase McLaughlin, P Jake Camarda. Consistent and clutch, boosting close-game outcomes.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 19: WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) – 1,200+ college yards, Godwin-like versatility.
  • Round 2, Pick 53: CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame) – 3 INTs in 2024, recovering from hip surgery.
  • Round 3, Pick 84: CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State) – 4.35 40-yard dash, 19 PBUs since 2023.
  • Round 4, Pick 121: EDGE David Walker (Central Arkansas) – FCS All-American, 23 TFLs in 2024.
  • Round 5, Pick 157: EDGE Elijah Roberts (SMU) – 4.78 40-yard dash, versatile DL/EDGE.
  • Round 7, Pick 235: WR Tez Johnson (Oregon) – 5’10”, 154 lbs, electric punt returner.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense

  • Points per game: 29.5 (4th)
  • Total yards per game: 399.6 (3rd)
  • Passing yards: 250.4 (3rd)
  • Rushing yards: 149.2 (4th)
  • 2025 Outlook: Egbuka’s addition and Mayfield’s growth keep the offense top-five, targeting ~30 PPG. Depth at WR mitigates Godwin’s injury risk.


Defense

  • Points allowed per game: 22.6 (16th)
  • Total yards allowed: 341.8 (18th)
  • Passing yards allowed: 243.9 (4th-worst)
  • Rushing yards allowed: 97.8 (4th-best)
  • 2025 Outlook: Morrison and Parrish bolster the secondary, aiming for ~20 PPG allowed. Run defense remains elite.


2025 Schedule Analysis

Below is the Buccaneers’ 2025 schedule with win probabilities (based on Vegas projections and strength of schedule) and survivor pool fit.

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, Sep 7 Atlanta Falcons Away 1:00 PM, FOX 55% Moderate: Divisional road opener is risky, but Falcons’ inconsistency makes it playable.
2 Sun, 9/14 Houston Texans Away 7:00 PM, ESPN 40% Poor: Primetime road game vs. AFC South champs is a trap. Avoid.
3 Sun, 9/21 New York Jets Home 1:00 PM, FOX 65% Top-Tier Anchor: Jets’ offense struggles, and Bucs’ home edge makes this a safe pick.
4 Sun, 9/28 Philadelphia Eagles Home 1:00 PM, FOX 45% Poor: Super Bowl champs at home are a tough matchup, even with Bucs’ offense. Avoid.
5 Sun, 10/5 Seattle Seahawks Away 4:05 PM, CBS 45% Poor: Seahawks’ home field and defense make this a risky road game. Avoid.
6 Sun, 10/12 San Francisco 49ers Home 4:25 PM, FOX 40% Poor: 49ers’ elite roster is a bad matchup, even at home. Avoid.
7 Mon, 10/20 Detroit Lions Away 7:00 PM, ESPN 35% Poor: Primetime road game vs. NFC North champs is a survivor pool killer. Avoid.
8 Sun, Oct 26 New Orleans Saints Away 4:05 PM, FOX 45% Poor: Divisional road game with Saints’ home edge is too unpredictable. Avoid.
9 Sun, 11/2 Houston Texans Home 4:05 PM, FOX 55% Streamable: Texans are tough, but home field and Bucs’ offense make this viable.
10 Sun, 11/9 New England Patriots Home 1:00 PM, CBS 70% Top-Tier Anchor: Pats’ rebuilding roster is a great matchup for Bucs at home.
11 Sun, 11/16 Buffalo Bills Away 1:00 PM, CBS 35% Poor: Bills’ playoff pedigree and cold weather make this a tough road game. Avoid.
12 Sun, 11/23 Los Angeles Rams Home 8:20 PM, NBC 50% Moderate: Rams are talented, but Bucs’ home edge in primetime evens it out. Risky.
13 Sun, 11/30 Arizona Cardinals Home 1:00 PM, FOX 65% Top-Tier Anchor: Cardinals’ young roster is a favorable matchup at home.
14 Sun, Dec 7 New Orleans Saints Away 1:00 PM, CBS 45% Poor: Divisional road game is too unpredictable for survivor pools. Avoid.
15 Sun, 12/14 Atlanta Falcons Home 1:00 PM, FOX 60% Streamable: Divisional home game vs. inconsistent Falcons is a solid pick.
16 Sun, 12/21 Carolina Panthers Away 1:00 PM, FOX 40% Poor: Panthers’ run game and home field make this a risky divisional road game. Avoid.
17 Sun, 12/28 Miami Dolphins Home 1:00 PM, FOX 60% Streamable: Dolphins’ speed is a challenge, but Bucs’ home advantage helps.
18 Sat, 1/4 Carolina Panthers Home 1:00 PM, TBD 55% Moderate: Divisional home game to close the season is playable but risky.

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • Offensive Firepower: Ranked 4th in scoring (29.5 PPG) and 3rd in total yards (399.6 YPG), driven by Mayfield’s 41 TDs and Irving’s 1,122 rushing yards.
  • Run Defense Strength: Allowed just 97.8 rushing YPG (4th-best), with Vea and Kancey dominating. Pass defense struggled (243.9 YPG, 4th-worst).
  • Turnover Margin: +3 (12th), thanks to Winfield Jr.’s playmaking. Improved secondary could push this higher in 2025.
  • Clutch Performance: Went 5-3 in one-score games, showing resilience in tight matchups.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Buccaneers are a top-tier survivor pool option in 2025, with a potent offense and winnable home games against rebuilding teams like the Jets, Patriots, and Cardinals. Their third-toughest schedule includes brutal road trips (Texans, Lions, Bills), so avoid those. Prioritize Weeks 3, 10, and 13 for home matchups where their offense can overwhelm weaker defenses. Divisional games are coin flips, so lean on home games like Week 15 vs. Atlanta.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 3 vs. New York Jets (65% win probability): The Jets’ offense struggles, and Tampa’s home field and passing attack make this a safe early pick.
  • Week 10 vs. New England Patriots (70% win probability): The Pats’ rebuilding roster is no match for Tampa’s offense at home. A prime mid-season anchor.
  • Week 13 vs. Arizona Cardinals (65% win probability): Arizona’s young roster falters on the road, and Bucs’ run defense should dominate.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 2 @ Houston Texans: Primetime road game against a playoff team is a survivor pool trap.
  • Week 7 @ Detroit Lions: NFC North champs in primetime on the road spell disaster.
  • Week 11 @ Buffalo Bills: Cold weather and a playoff-caliber opponent make this a no-go.
  • Week 16 @ Carolina Panthers: Divisional road games are unpredictable, especially late in the season.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Home Dominance: Seven home games include winnable matchups (Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, Falcons). Prioritize these over road games.
  • Divisional Volatility: NFC South games (Weeks 1, 8, 14, 15, 18) are risky due to familiarity. Stick to home games like Week 15 vs. Atlanta.
  • Secondary Upgrade: Morrison and Parrish address 2024’s pass defense woes, boosting win probabilities against pass-heavy teams.
  • Late-Season Strength: No bye week in the schedule provided, suggesting resilience, but monitor injury reports for David and Godwin.


Final Verdict

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a survivor pool powerhouse in 2025, with a top-five offense and a favorable home slate. Weeks 3, 10, and 13 offer safe home matchups against rebuilding teams, leveraging Mayfield’s arm and a stout run defense. Avoid road games against elite foes like the Texans, Lions, and Bills, and be cautious with divisional road trips. Use the Bucs as an early-to-mid-season anchor to maximize their offensive firepower and home-field advantage.

  • Who should I pick for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a 2025 NFL survivor pool?

    Go with Week 10 vs. New England Patriots or Week 13 vs. Arizona Cardinals. Both are home games against weaker rosters, with 65-70% win probabilities. Avoid Week 2 at Houston.

  • Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a good survivor pool pick in 2025?

    Yes, they’re a top-tier option with a potent offense and winnable home games. Target Weeks 3, 10, and 13, but steer clear of tough road matchups like Weeks 2, 7, and 11.

  • What’s the Buccaneers’ easiest game for a survivor pool in 2025?

    Week 10 vs. New England Patriots is the safest bet. It’s a home game against a rebuilding team, with Tampa’s offense poised to dominate.

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