Is it safe to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 for my survivor pool?

Week 1 at the Jets (58%) is streamable but risky. Rodgers facing his former team adds intrigue, but the Jets’ unproven roster and new coach make it unpredictable. Prefer Weeks 6 or 12 for safer picks.

What’s the best week to pick the Steelers in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?

Week 6 vs. the Cleveland Browns (70%) is the top pick. Pittsburgh’s defense and Rodgers’ playmaking should dominate Cleveland’s shaky offense at home, with low future value making it ideal.

Why should I avoid the Steelers in divisional games for survivor pools?

The AFC North is brutal, with Baltimore and Cincinnati projected as playoff teams. Pittsburgh’s 3-3 divisional record in 2024 and low win probabilities (40–50%) in Weeks 7, 11, 14, and 17 make these games too volatile for survivor pools.

pittsburgh steelers

Updated July 1, 2025

Team Overview

The Pittsburgh Steelers head into 2025 with a transformed roster, blending a high-octane offense led by Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf with a revamped defense bolstered by Jalen Ramsey and a blockbuster trade sending Minkah Fitzpatrick to Miami. After a 10-7 season in 2024, the Steelers, under Mike Tomlin’s steady leadership, aim to capitalize on their aggressive offseason moves, including acquiring tight end Jonnu Smith and Ramsey for Fitzpatrick. The AFC North remains a gauntlet, and a challenging schedule (9th-hardest per Sharp Football Analysis) makes survivor pool picks critical. This analysis updates the Steelers’ roster, draft, schedule, and survivor pool strategy with these blockbuster trades in mind.

Team Roster Review

Offense

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (signed, 3,897 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs in 2024 with Jets), Mason Rudolph, Will Howard (rookie). Rodgers’ signing transforms the offense, bringing elite decision-making and playmaking at age 41. Rudolph is a reliable backup, while Howard is a developmental prospect.
Running Backs: Jaylen Warren (768 yards, 4 TDs in 2024), Kaleb Johnson (rookie), Kenneth Gainwell, Ollie Gordon (rookie). Warren is a dependable RB1, and Johnson adds power. The loss of Najee Harris impacts depth but is mitigated by Rodgers’ passing prowess.
Wide Receivers: DK Metcalf (acquired via trade, 1,142 yards, 8 TDs in 2024), Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods, Roman Wilson (rookie). Metcalf’s physicality pairs perfectly with Rodgers’ deep-ball accuracy, creating a dynamic WR1 option. The WR2 spot remains thin post-Pickens trade.
Tight Ends: Jonnu Smith (acquired via trade, 88 receptions, 884 yards, 8 TDs in 2024), Pat Freiermuth (653 yards, 7 TDs in 2024), Darnell Washington. Smith’s familiarity with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and Pro Bowl production add a dynamic receiving threat, complementing Freiermuth’s red-zone prowess. The Steelers’ heavy use of 12 and 13 personnel (45% of snaps in 2024) makes this group a strength.
Offensive Line: Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick, Troy Fautanu. Ranked 12th in pass protection and 15th in run-blocking in 2024. Solid but not elite, this unit benefits from Rodgers’ quick release.

Defense

Defensive Line: Edge: T.J. Watt (11.5 sacks in 2024), Alex Highsmith, Jack Sawyer (rookie). Interior: Cameron Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon (rookie), Yahya Black (rookie). Watt’s dominance anchors a deep, disruptive front.
Linebackers: Patrick Queen (129 tackles in 2024), Elandon Roberts, Carson Bruener (rookie). Queen’s tackling and coverage skills lead a physical unit.
Secondary: CB: Jalen Ramsey (acquired via trade, 2 INTs, 11 pass breakups in 2024), Joey Porter Jr., Darius Slay, Donte Kent (rookie). S: DeShon Elliott, Juan Thornhill. Ramsey’s versatility (78% outside CB, some nickel/safety snaps) elevates a secondary that lost Fitzpatrick’s deep safety presence (80% deep snaps). Elliott and Thornhill provide flexibility, but the unit’s cohesion is unproven.
Special Teams: K: Chris Boswell (94.1% FG in 2024). P: Cameron Johnston. Returner: Calvin Austin III. Boswell’s clutch kicking and Austin’s return dynamism add value.

2025 Draft Class

Round 1, Pick 21: DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon) – 34 QB pressures in 2024, versatile. Bolsters run defense and pass rush.
Round 3, Pick 83: RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) – 1,200 yards, 0 fumbles in 2024. Physical back to replace Harris.
Round 4, Pick 123: OLB Jack Sawyer (Ohio State) – 6.5 sacks in 2024. Adds edge depth behind Watt.
Round 5, Pick 164: NT Yahya Black (Iowa) – Run-stuffing nose tackle, adds bulk to the interior.
Round 6, Pick 185: QB Will Howard (Ohio State) – 3,500 yards, 28 TDs in 2024. Developmental QB with mobility.
Round 7, Pick 226: LB Carson Bruener (Washington) – Depth piece with special teams value.
Round 7, Pick 229: CB Donte Kent (Central Michigan) – Slot corner with return ability.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense: Ranked 18th in total yards (337.8 YPG), 20th in points (21.2 PPG). Russell Wilson’s 2,482 passing yards and Najee Harris’ 1,043 rushing yards kept the offense afloat, but inconsistency was an issue.
Defense: Ranked 8th in yards allowed (319.6 YPG), 10th in points allowed (20.4 PPG). Watt’s 11.5 sacks and Jackson’s 5 INTs fueled a +5 turnover margin (12th).
2025 Outlook: Rodgers’ signing and Metcalf’s addition could push the offense into the top 10, with Rodgers’ 63% completion and 28 TDs in 2024 suggesting upside. The defense, with Harmon and Sawyer, should remain top-10, excelling in sacks and turnovers.

2025 Outlook

Rodgers’ signing, paired with Metcalf and Jonnu Smith, could push the offense into the top 10, with Rodgers’ 63% completion and 28 TDs in 2024 suggesting significant upside. The defense, bolstered by Ramsey’s versatility and the draft additions of Harmon and Sawyer, should remain top-10, excelling in sacks and turnovers despite Fitzpatrick’s departure. The Steelers’ aggressive moves signal a Super Bowl push, but the secondary’s cohesion and Rodgers’ age (41) are risks. Expect 10–12 wins with survivor pool value in home games against weaker offenses.

2025 Schedule Analysis

Week	Opponent	Location	Win Probability	Notes
1	New York Jets	Away	58%	Rodgers faces his former team; Jets’ roster and new coach add uncertainty.
2	Seattle Seahawks	Home	65%	Metcalf’s revenge game; Seattle’s offense (Darnold) lacks firepower.
3	Los Angeles Chargers	Home	52%	Tough matchup vs. a top defense, but Rodgers thrives at home.
4	Carolina Panthers	Away	60%	Panthers’ rebuild makes this winnable, but road games are tricky.
5	Atlanta Falcons	Home	55%	Falcons’ offense is potent, but Pittsburgh’s defense holds strong.
6	Cleveland Browns	Home	70%	Browns’ QB issues and weak offense make this a prime survivor pick.
7	Cincinnati Bengals	Away	45%	Thursday night road game vs. elite Bengals offense; avoid.
8	Green Bay Packers	Home	50%	Rodgers vs. his former team on SNF; emotional but unpredictable.
9	Cleveland Browns	Away	62%	Winnable road game, but divisional matchups carry risk.
10	Washington Commanders	Away	48%	Commanders’ young offense is improving; tough road test.
11	Baltimore Ravens	Home	50%	Divisional slugfest; too close to call for survivor pools.
12	Chicago Bears	Away	65%	Bears’ developing offense struggles vs. Pittsburgh’s defense.
13	Buffalo Bills	Away	42%	Bills’ high-powered offense makes this a risky road game.
14	Baltimore Ravens	Away	40%	Late-season divisional road game; avoid for survivor pools.
15	Miami Dolphins	Home	55%	Dolphins’ speed challenges secondary, but Rodgers keeps it close.
16	Detroit Lions	Away	38%	Lions’ top-tier offense overwhelms Pittsburgh on the road; avoid.
17	Cincinnati Bengals	Home	50%	Divisional game with playoff implications; too risky for survivor.
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Away	35%	Brutal matchup vs. defending champs; steer clear.

*Win probabilities are estimated based on 2024 performance, roster changes, and schedule strength.

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Notes on Key Stats from 2024

Defensive Strength: The Steelers’ 11.5 sacks from Watt and 5 INTs from Jackson fueled a +5 turnover margin (12th). Their 20.4 PPG allowed was top-10.
Offensive Upgrade: Rodgers’ 3,897 yards and 28 TDs in 2024 far surpass Wilson’s 2,482 yards and 13 TDs. His play-action proficiency (best in 2020 with Green Bay) aligns with Arthur Smith’s 27% play-action rate (10th in 2024).
Prime-Time Success: Pittsburgh went 3-2 in prime-time games, with Boswell’s 94.1% FG rate winning two close games.
AFC North Struggles: The Steelers went 3-3 in the division, losing both games to Baltimore and splitting with Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Survivor Pool Strategy

With Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, and Jonnu Smith, the Steelers are a stronger survivor pool option, leveraging an elite defense and a significantly upgraded offense. Their schedule demands caution, particularly in divisional games and late-season matchups. Focus on Top-Tier Anchor weeks (6, 12) against weaker offenses like the Browns and Bears, where Rodgers, Ramsey, and Smith should shine. Streamable weeks (1, 2, 9, 15, 17) offer flexibility in smaller pools, especially with Rodgers’ home-field advantage. Avoid divisional games (Weeks 7, 11, 14, 17) and road matchups against high-powered offenses (Weeks 13, 16, 18) to minimize risk.

Best Survivor Picks

Week 6 vs. Cleveland Browns (Home, 72%): Cleveland’s QB uncertainty and weak offense face Pittsburgh’s elite defense, with Rodgers and Smith exploiting a shaky secondary. Low future value makes this the top pick.
Week 12 vs. Chicago Bears (Away, 68%): The Bears’ developing offense, led by Caleb Williams, is outmatched by Pittsburgh’s defense (Ramsey, Watt) and Rodgers’ experience, making this a safe road game.
Week 2 vs. Seattle Seahawks (Home, 68%): Seattle’s lackluster offense, led by Sam Darnold, struggles against Ramsey and Porter Jr., while Metcalf and Smith fuel Rodgers’ home-field edge.

Weeks to Avoid

Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals (Away, 45%): A Thursday night road game against Joe Burrow’s elite offense is a survivor pool trap, especially with Pittsburgh’s secondary adjusting post-Fitzpatrick.
Week 14 at Baltimore Ravens (Away, 42%): A late-season divisional road game against Lamar Jackson’s playoff-caliber team is too risky, even with Ramsey’s addition.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions (Away, 38%): The Lions’ top-tier offense will challenge Pittsburgh’s secondary on the road, making this a clear avoid.

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

Rodgers’ Impact: His signing boosts win probabilities by 5–10% in Weeks 2–12, with his 63% completion and 28 TDs in 2024 suggesting a top-10 offense. His chemistry with Metcalf and Smith should peak midseason.
Ramsey’s Versatility: Ramsey’s ability to play outside CB, nickel, or safety mitigates Fitzpatrick’s loss, but the secondary’s cohesion is unproven. Prioritize matchups against weaker passing attacks (Weeks 2, 6, 12).
Home-Field Edge: Pittsburgh’s 6-2 home record in 2024 and historical success vs. teams like Seattle (Week 2) and Cleveland (Week 6) make home games prime targets.
AFC North Gauntlet: Six divisional games, including two each against Baltimore and Cincinnati, remain unpredictable due to rivalry intensity and playoff-caliber opponents. Avoid unless desperate.
Late-Season Stretch: Weeks 13–16 (Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Lions) feature three playoff teams and a tough road slate. Save Pittsburgh for earlier weeks to avoid this gauntlet.

Final Verdict

With Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, and Jonnu Smith, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a top-tier survivor pool pick in select spots, blending a top-10 defense with a potent offense. Weeks 6 (vs. Browns) and 12 (vs. Bears) are your safest bets, with Week 2 (vs. Seahawks) as a strong early option. Rodgers’ experience, Smith’s receiving threat, and Ramsey’s versatility boost their ceiling, but the tough schedule and AFC North rivalries demand caution. Use them early in Weeks 2, 6, or 12 to capitalize on favorable matchups and preserve top teams for later. In smaller pools, their upgraded roster makes them a differentiator, but in larger pools, deploy them strategically to avoid divisional and late-season traps.

Is it safe to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 for my survivor pool?
Week 1 at the Jets (58%) is streamable but risky. Rodgers facing his former team adds intrigue, but the Jets’ unproven roster and new coach make it unpredictable. Prefer Weeks 6 or 12 for safer picks.
What’s the best week to pick the Steelers in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?
Week 6 vs. the Cleveland Browns (70%) is the top pick. Pittsburgh’s defense and Rodgers’ playmaking should dominate Cleveland’s shaky offense at home, with low future value making it ideal.
Why should I avoid the Steelers in divisional games for survivor pools?
The AFC North is brutal, with Baltimore and Cincinnati projected as playoff teams. Pittsburgh’s 3-3 divisional record in 2024 and low win probabilities (40–50%) in Weeks 7, 11, 14, and 17 make these games too volatile for survivor pools.