Green Bay Packers

Team Overview

The Green Bay Packers enter 2025 with championship aspirations after an 11-6 season that ended in a wild-card loss to the Eagles. With Jordan Love cemented as the franchise QB, a revamped offensive line, and a young, versatile draft class, they aim to reclaim the NFC North. For survivor pool players, the Packers offer a mix of high-upside home games and tricky road tests, making strategic timing critical.

Team Roster Review

Offense

• Quarterback: Jordan Love (4,000+ yards, 32 TDs in 2024, 2nd-most TDs in NFL), Malik Willis (trade acquisition), undrafted FA QB. Love’s growth into a top-10 QB fuels optimism, but depth is untested.
• Running Backs: Josh Jacobs (1,009 yards, 16 TDs in 2024), MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson, Chris Brooks. Jacobs’ bruising style and red-zone prowess anchor the run game, with Lloyd adding speed.
• Wide Receivers: Matthew Golden (1st-round pick, elite speed), Savion Williams (3rd-round pick, 6-4, 220 lbs), Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Mecole Hardman, Bo Melton, Malik Heath. Golden fills the void left by Christian Watson’s ACL injury, bringing deep-threat ability.
• Tight Ends: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, John FitzPatrick, Ben Sims. Musgrave’s athleticism is a mismatch weapon, but consistency is key. Kraft and FitzPatrick add blocking depth.
• Offensive Line: Aaron Banks (LG, 6-5, 324, free agent), Elgton Jenkins (C), Anthony Belton (2nd-round pick, 6-6, 335), John Williams (7th-round pick, 6-4, 322), Rasheed Walker, Zach Tom, Jordan Morgan. Massive size upgrades (Belton, Banks) bolster run-blocking, but pass protection needs cohesion.

Defense

• Defensive Line: Edge: Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell (4th-round pick, 6-3, 256), Collin Oliver (5th-round pick, 6-2, 240). Interior: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Warren Brinson (6th-round pick, 6-5, 315). Sorrell’s power and Oliver’s speed add variety, but interior pressure remains a concern post-T.J. Slaton.
• Linebackers: Quay Walker, Edgerrin Cooper, Isaiah McDuffie, Ty’Ron Hopper, Kristian Welch. Walker and Cooper form a dynamic duo, with McDuffie’s re-signing adding stability. Depth is thin post-Preston Smith trade.
• Secondary: Jaire Alexander (status uncertain), Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs, Carrington Valentine, Micah Robinson (7th-round pick), Kalen King. Cornerback depth is a glaring issue with Alexander’s future unclear and Stokes/Rochell gone.
• Special Teams: K Brandon McManus (3-year deal), P Daniel Whelan, LS Matt Orzech, KR/PR Matthew Golden, Savion Williams. McManus brings reliability, and Golden’s kick-return ability is a bonus.

2025 Draft Class

• Round 1, Pick 23: WR Matthew Golden (Texas) – Elite speed, 10 catches on 25+ yard passes in 2024. First 1st-round WR since 2002.
• Round 2, Pick 55: OT Anthony Belton (NC State) – 6-6, 335 lbs, 51 pancake blocks in 2023. Mauling run blocker.
• Round 3, Pick 87: WR Savion Williams (TCU) – 6-4, 220 lbs, multi-threat after catch.
• Round 4, Pick 119: DL Barryn Sorrell (Texas) – 12.5% pressure rate in 2024, versatile edge.
• Round 5, Pick 151: LB Collin Oliver (Oklahoma State) – Speedy, undersized at 6-2, 240.
• Round 6, Pick 183: DL Warren Brinson (Georgia) – 6-5, 315 lbs, replaces T.J. Slaton.
• Round 7, Pick 215: CB Micah Robinson (Tulane) – Depth pick for thin CB room.
• Round 7, Pick 247: OL John Williams (Cincinnati) – 6-4, 322 lbs, aerospace engineering major.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

• Offense: Ranked 6th in EPA per pass, 12th in total offense (354.2 YPG). Josh Jacobs’ 16 TDs powered a top-10 rushing attack (135.6 YPG). Jordan Love’s 32 TDs (2nd in NFL) masked inconsistency in the receiving corps, exacerbated by Watson’s late-season ACL tear.
• Defense: Ranked 14th in total defense (335.1 YPG), 16th in points allowed (22.5 PPG). Struggled in NFC North (1-5 record), with weak pass rush (3.9% sack rate, 22nd). Secondary was exposed without consistent pressure, allowing 7.1 YPA (18th).
• 2025 Outlook: Offense should improve with Golden’s speed and a beefier O-line. Defense needs Sorrell and Oliver to boost pass rush, and CB depth remains a concern. Early bye (Week 5) could disrupt rhythm but allows recovery for a late-season NFC North gauntlet.

2025 Schedule Analysis

*Win probabilities are based on projected Vegas win totals and historical trends, adjusted for home/away and opponent strength.

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

• Turnover Differential: +4 (12th in NFL). Jordan Love’s 11 INTs were offset by a ball-hawking secondary (15 INTs), but fumbles (e.g., Watson’s costly fumble vs. Lions) hurt in key games.
• NFC North Struggles: 1-5 record, worst since 2005. Losses to Vikings and Lions exposed pass rush and secondary weaknesses.
• Red-Zone Efficiency: Offense ranked 8th (62.3% TD rate), driven by Jacobs’ 16 TDs. Defense struggled, allowing 58.1% TD rate (20th).

Survivor Pool Strategy

The Packers are a Streamable survivor pool option, with a few anchor weeks against weaker opponents (Panthers, Giants) but significant risks in divisional and primetime games. Their early home-heavy schedule (Weeks 1-2) and late NFC North gauntlet require careful timing. Avoid using them in weeks with high variance (e.g., road divisional games or against elite QBs like Lamar Jackson). Their Week 5 bye means you’ll need to plan around a long stretch without them.

Best Survivor Picks

• Week 9 vs. Carolina Panthers (Home): The Panthers are in rebuild mode, and Green Bay’s run game should overwhelm their shaky front seven. A 70% win probability makes this a prime anchor week.
• Week 11 vs. New York Giants (Away): The Giants’ offense lacks playmakers, and the Packers’ defense should capitalize. A 68% win probability and non-divisional matchup make this a safe road pick.
• Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears (Home): Green Bay’s 11-game home win streak vs. Chicago (snapped in 2024) should resume. A 65% win probability and home advantage make this a solid choice.

Weeks to Avoid

• Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys: A primetime road game against a playoff contender is a survivor pool death trap. Dallas’ pass rush could exploit Green Bay’s O-line.
• Week 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers: Uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers’ potential return and a tough road environment make this a high-risk pick.
• Week 13 at Detroit Lions: Thanksgiving in Detroit against the NFC North champs is a brutal spot, especially after a short-week Vikings game.
• Week 18 at Minnesota Vikings: A road divisional finale with playoff implications is too unpredictable for survivor pools.

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

• Early Bye Week: The Week 5 bye could disrupt early momentum, but it allows the Packers to reset for a tough midseason stretch. Plan to use them post-bye for maximum value.
• NFC North Gauntlet: Five of their last seven games are divisional, increasing variance. Save Packers picks for non-divisional matchups to avoid traps.
• Home Opener Advantage: Green Bay’s first Week 1 home game since 2018 (vs. Detroit) is tempting, but the Lions’ strength makes it risky.
• Rookie Impact: Golden and Williams could stretch defenses, opening up Jacobs’ run game. Monitor their integration during training camp for offensive upside.

Final Verdict

The Green Bay Packers are a solid but not elite survivor pool option for 2025. Their favorable home matchups against Carolina (Week 9) and Chicago (Week 14), plus a winnable road game against the Giants (Week 11), offer safe spots to deploy them. However, their 1-5 NFC North record in 2024 and a late-season divisional gauntlet demand caution. Use the Packers in Weeks 9 or 11 to maximize win probability while preserving top-tier teams for later weeks. Their offensive firepower and home-field advantage at Lambeau make them a reliable midseason pick, but avoid divisional traps and primetime road games.