New Orleans Saints

Team Overview

The New Orleans Saints face a pivotal 2025 season, transitioning to a new era under head coach Kellen Moore after a 5-12 finish in 2024. With Derek Carr retired due to a shoulder injury, rookie QB Tyler Shough steps into the spotlight, backed by a revamped offensive line and a defense aiming to rebound from a dismal 2024. The Saints’ third-easiest NFL schedule offers survivor pool opportunities, but their unproven roster makes them a high-risk, high-reward pick. Expect 6-8 wins as they fight to stay competitive in the NFC South.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Tyler Shough (2025 2nd-round pick, 25 years old), Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener, Ben DiNucci. Shough’s 7-year college experience brings poise, but his injury history is a concern.
  • Running Backs: Alvin Kamara (3.9 YPC in 2024, age-30 season), Kendre Miller, Devin Neal (2025 6th-round pick, Kansas’ all-time leading rusher), Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Kamara’s workload may decrease with Neal’s arrival.
  • Wide Receivers: Chris Olave (8 games in 2024 due to concussions, 9.1 yards/target), Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means, Kevin Austin Jr. Olave’s health is critical for explosiveness.
  • Tight Ends: Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau, Moliki Matavao (2025 7th-round pick). Hill’s versatility remains a weapon.
  • Offensive Line: Kelvin Banks Jr. (2025 1st-round pick), Taliese Fuaga, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz. Banks adds elite tackle play, but the line’s cohesion is untested after declining Trevor Penning’s option.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: Edge: Chase Young, Cam Jordan, Fadil Diggs (2025 7th-round pick). Interior: Bryan Bresee (7.5 sacks in 2024), Davon Godchaux, Khalen Saunders, Vernon Broughton (2025 3rd-round pick). Bresee’s growth is promising, but run defense needs work.
  • Linebackers: Demario Davis, Pete Werner, Danny Stutsman (2025 4th-round pick). Davis anchors a solid but aging group.
  • Secondary: CB: Alontae Taylor (4.0 sacks in 2024), Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley (2025 4th-round pick). S: Tyrann Mathieu, Justin Reid, Jonas Sanker (2025 3rd-round pick). Taylor and Reid bolster a talented but inconsistent unit.
  • Special Teams: K Wil Lutz, P Lou Hedley. Reliable specialists provide an edge in close games.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 9: OT Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas) – Lombardi/Outland Trophy winner, started 42 games at left tackle. Elite pass protector.
  • Round 2, Pick 40: QB Tyler Shough (Louisville) – 7-year college veteran, injury-prone but high-upside passer.
  • Round 3, Pick 71: DT Vernon Broughton (Texas) – 4.0 sacks in 2024, adds depth to a veteran-heavy line.
  • Round 3, Pick 93: S Jonas Sanker (Virginia) – ACC tackle leader, Senior Bowl standout.
  • Round 4, Pick 112: LB Danny Stutsman (Oklahoma) – Hard-hitting run-stopper, immediate contributor.
  • Round 4, Pick 131: CB Quincy Riley (Louisville) – 15 pass breakups in 2024, interception machine.
  • Round 6, Pick 184: RB Devin Neal (Kansas) – School-record 4,343 rushing yards, versatile back.
  • Round 7, Pick 248: TE Moliki Matavao (UCLA) – Red-zone threat, depth piece.
  • Round 7, Pick 254: DE Fadil Diggs (Syracuse) – 7.5 sacks in 2024, rotational edge rusher.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense

  • Points per game: 19.9 (24th)
  • Total yards per game: 320.1 (21st)
  • Passing yards: 205.2 (23rd)
  • Rushing yards: 114.9 (14th)
  • 2025 Outlook: Shough’s mobility and Moore’s play-action schemes could boost scoring to ~22 PPG, but Olave’s health and Kamara’s decline are concerns.


Defense

  • Points allowed per game: 23.4 (19th)
  • Total yards allowed: 379.9 (3rd-worst)
  • Passing yards allowed: 238.5 (27th)
  • Rushing yards allowed: 141.4 (2nd-worst)
  • 2025 Outlook: New DC Brandon Staley and additions like Reid, Sanker, and Broughton aim to fix the run defense, targeting ~21 PPG allowed.


2025 Schedule Analysis

Below is the Saints’ 2025 schedule with win probabilities (based on Vegas projections and strength of schedule) and survivor pool fit.

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, Sep 7 Arizona Cardinals Home 1:00 PM, CBS 55% Moderate: Home opener vs. a young Cardinals team. Shough’s debut adds risk, but winnable.
2 Sun, 9/14 San Francisco 49ers Home 1:00 PM, FOX 35% Poor: 49ers’ elite roster is a tough matchup, even at home. Avoid.
3 Sun, 9/21 Seattle Seahawks Away 4:05 PM, CBS 40% Poor: Seahawks’ home field and defense make this a risky road game. Avoid.
4 Sun, 9/28 Buffalo Bills Away 1:00 PM, CBS 30% Poor: Bills are a playoff powerhouse; road game is a survivor pool killer. Avoid.
5 Sun, 10/5 New York Giants Home 1:00 PM, FOX 65% Top-Tier Anchor: Giants’ rebuilding offense is vulnerable. Prime home pick.
6 Sun, 10/12 New England Patriots Home 4:25 PM, CBS 60% Streamable: Pats’ lack of offensive firepower favors Saints at home. Solid pick.
7 Sun, 10/19 Chicago Bears Home 1:00 PM, FOX 60% Streamable: Bears’ offense struggles, and Saints’ home edge makes this playable.
8 Sun, Oct 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home 4:05 PM, FOX 55% Moderate: Divisional game at home, but Bucs’ balance makes it risky.
9 Sun, 11/2 Los Angeles Rams Away 4:05 PM, FOX 45% Poor: Rams’ offense and road environment are tough for a young QB. Avoid.
10 Sun, 11/9 Carolina Panthers Away 1:00 PM, FOX 40% Poor: Panthers’ run game and home field tilt this against Saints. Avoid.
11 Sun, 11/16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home 1:00 PM, CBS 55% Moderate: Another divisional home game, but Tampa’s road struggles help. Risky but playable.
12 Sun, 11/23 Atlanta Falcons Home 4:25 PM, FOX 60% Top-Tier Anchor: Falcons’ inconsistency and Saints’ home advantage make this a strong pick.
13 Sun, 11/30 Miami Dolphins Home 1:00 PM, FOX 50% Moderate: Dolphins’ speed is a challenge, but home field evens it out. Coin flip.
14 Sun, Dec 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home 1:00 PM, CBS 55% Streamable: Third divisional home game; Saints’ familiarity gives an edge.
15 Sun, 12/14 Carolina Panthers Home 4:25 PM, FOX 55% Streamable: Panthers’ inconsistency and Saints’ home edge make this viable.
16 Sun, 12/21 New York Jets Home 1:00 PM, CBS 50% Moderate: Jets’ defense is tough, but home advantage helps. Risky late-season pick.
17 Sun, 12/28 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 PM, CBS 65% Top-Tier Anchor: Titans’ rebuilding roster is a great matchup for a late-season home game.
18 Sat, 1/4 Atlanta Falcons Away 1:00 PM, TBD 45% Poor: Divisional road game to close the season is too unpredictable. Avoid.

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • Offensive Struggles: The Saints ranked 24th in scoring (19.9 PPG), with a 5-5 record in Derek Carr’s starts but 0-7 without him, highlighting QB dependency.
  • Run Game Decline: Kamara’s 3.9 YPC and injuries to the offensive line hurt, with only 114.9 rushing YPG (14th). Neal’s addition aims to spark the ground game.
  • Defensive Woes: Allowed 379.9 YPG (3rd-worst), with a league-worst 141.4 rushing YPG against. Bresee’s 7.5 sacks were a bright spot.
  • Turnover Margin: -4 (22nd), with Olave’s limited play and QB injuries contributing to inefficiency.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Saints are a mid-tier survivor pool option in 2025, bolstered by their third-easiest schedule but hindered by a rookie QB and a porous 2024 defense. Their home-heavy divisional slate (Weeks 8, 11, 12, 14, 15) offers value, especially against inconsistent NFC South foes. Avoid early road games and elite opponents like the Bills or 49ers. Target Weeks 5, 12, and 17 for home matchups against weaker or rebuilding teams.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 5 vs. New York Giants (65% win probability): The Giants’ rebuilding offense struggles, and the Saints’ home field and new-look O-line should dominate. A top early pick.
  • Week 12 vs. Atlanta Falcons (60% win probability): Atlanta’s inconsistent offense and the Saints’ home advantage make this a safe mid-season choice.
  • Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans (65% win probability): A late-season home game against a rebuilding Titans team is a prime survivor pool anchor.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Even at home, the 49ers’ elite roster is a nightmare for a rookie QB. Avoid.
  • Week 4 @ Buffalo Bills: Road game against a playoff contender is a survivor pool trap. Steer clear.
  • Week 10 @ Carolina Panthers: Divisional road games are unpredictable, and Carolina’s run game could exploit the Saints’ weak run defense. Avoid.
  • Week 18 @ Atlanta Falcons: Late-season divisional road games are too risky for survivor pools, especially with playoff implications.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Rookie QB Risk: Shough’s inexperience could lead to early-season struggles, making Weeks 1-4 risky unless the O-line gels quickly.
  • Home Dominance: The Saints play 10 home games, including winnable matchups against the Giants, Patriots, and Titans. Prioritize these.
  • Divisional Volatility: Five NFC South games (Weeks 8, 10, 11, 14, 18) are coin flips due to familiarity. Stick to home games like Weeks 12 and 14.
  • Defensive Improvement: New additions (Reid, Sanker, Broughton) could shore up the run defense, boosting late-season win probabilities.


Final Verdict

The New Orleans Saints are a situational survivor pool pick in 2025, with a favorable schedule and home-heavy divisional games offering value in Weeks 5, 12, and 17. Their rookie QB and shaky defense demand caution, so avoid early road games and elite opponents like the 49ers or Bills. Use the Saints as a mid-to-late-season anchor in home matchups against rebuilding teams, but don’t rely on them for consistent dominance. Smart timing is key to leveraging their third-easiest schedule.

  • Who should I pick for the New Orleans Saints in a 2025 NFL survivor pool?

    Target Week 5 vs. New York Giants or Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans. Both are home games against rebuilding teams, with 65% win probabilities. Avoid Week 2 vs. the 49ers.

  • Are the New Orleans Saints a good survivor pool pick in 2025?

    They’re a mid-tier option with the third-easiest schedule. Home games in Weeks 5, 12, and 17 are safe bets, but rookie QB Tyler Shough and a weak run defense make road games risky.

  • What’s the Saints’ easiest game for a survivor pool in 2025?

    Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans is the safest pick. It’s a late-season home game against a rebuilding team, with the Saints’ O-line and home crowd giving a clear edge.

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