BUFFALO BILLS

Buffalo Bills 2025 Roster Overview

The Bills’ 2025 roster is anchored by quarterback Josh Allen, the 2024 NFL MVP, and a balanced team aiming for a Super Bowl. Key roster details are based on depth charts and projections from ESPN, Buffalo Bills’ official site, and Buffalo Rumblings.

Offense:

• Quarterback: Josh Allen (starter, 40 total TDs in 2024, 101.4 passer rating), Mitch Trubisky (backup), Mike White (3rd string). Allen’s dual-threat ability drives the offense.
• Running Backs: James Cook (1,009 yards, 16 TDs in 2024, Pro Bowl alternate), Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, Reggie Gilliam (FB). Cook’s versatility and the offensive line’s run-blocking are strengths.
• Wide Receivers: Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer (free agent signing), Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore (new signing, 200 career catches), Laviska Shenault Jr. The group is deep but lacks a true No. 1.
• Tight Ends: Dalton Kincaid (pass-catcher), Dawson Knox (blocker), Jackson Hawes (rookie, run-blocking specialist). Kincaid is expected to rebound post-injury.
• Offensive Line: Dion Dawkins (LT, 4th Pro Bowl), David Edwards (LG), Connor McGovern (C), O’Cyrus Torrence (RG), Spencer Brown (RT). Backups: Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Chase Lundt. Allowed only 14 sacks in 2024, one of the NFL’s best units.

Defense:

• Defensive Line: Edge: Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa (free agent signing), A.J. Epenesa, Landon Jackson (rookie), Javon Solomon. Interior: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, T.J. Sanders (rookie), Deone Walker (rookie), DeWayne Carter. Youthful (average age 24.7) and revamped via draft.
• Linebackers: Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector. Milano’s health is critical.
• Secondary: CBs: Maxwell Hairston (1st-round rookie, 4.28 40), Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas (FA decision pending), Dorian Strong (rookie). Safeties: Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Jordan Hancock (rookie). Hairston’s speed addresses 2024 secondary weaknesses.
• Special Teams: K Tyler Bass, P Jake Camarda (competing with Brad Robbins), LS Reid Ferguson. Camarda strengthens punting.

Strengths: Elite QB, strong O-line, deep skill positions, younger defense.

Weaknesses: No dominant WR1, secondary depth (if Hairston doesn’t start immediately), LB injury concerns.

2025 Draft Class

The Bills prioritized defense in the 2025 NFL Draft, selecting six defensive players and three offensive players to address needs. Details are sourced from Buffalo Bills’ official site and The Athletic.

• Round 1, Pick 30: CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky) – Fastest DB at the Combine (4.28 40), expected to compete for a starting role.
• Round 2, Pick 41: DT T.J. Sanders (South Carolina) – 4.0 sacks in 2024, powerful. Adds depth and upside.
• Round 2, Pick 60: EDGE Landon Jackson (Arkansas) – 16 career sacks, team captain. Potential 2026 starter.
• Round 4, Pick 109: DT Deone Walker (Kentucky) – 6’7”, 331 lbs. Developmental prospect with starter potential.
• Round 5, Pick 141: TE Jackson Hawes (Georgia Tech) – Elite run-blocker, special teams contributor.
• Round 5, Pick 151: DB Jordan Hancock (Ohio State) – Versatile (nickel/safety), depth and special teams.
• Round 6, Pick 190: CB Dorian Strong (Virginia Tech) – Zone coverage specialist, potential steal.
• Round 6, Pick 201: OT Chase Lundt (UConn) – 88.2 PFF zone-blocking grade. O-line depth.
• Round 7, Pick 223: WR Kaden Prather (Maryland) – Late-round flyer, unlikely to make roster.

Impact: Hairston, Sanders, and Jackson could contribute immediately, addressing 2024 playoff weaknesses (secondary, pass rush). Offensive picks (Hawes, Lundt) bolster the run game.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Using 2024 stats as a baseline (from ESPN, NFL.com, and Pro-Football-Reference), here are the Bills’ key metrics:

Offense

• Points Scored: 525 points (30.9 PPG, top 5).
• Total Yards: 6,200 yards (365 YPG, top 10). Allen led with 40 total TDs.
• Passing: ~3,800 yards, 101.4 passer rating (7th). Only 14 sacks allowed.
• Rushing: ~2,400 yards, led by Cook (1,009 yards, 16 TDs). 4.8 YPC, top 10 in rushing TDs.
• Strengths: Versatile attack, low turnovers, red-zone efficiency.
• Weaknesses: Inconsistent deep passing due to lack of WR1.

Defense

• Points Allowed: 340 points (20 PPG, top 10).
• Total Yards Allowed: 5,600 yards (330 YPG, middle of the pack).
• Passing Defense: ~3,600 yards allowed, struggled against elite QBs (e.g., Mahomes). Secondary was a weak point.
• Rushing Defense: ~2,000 yards allowed, solid but not elite.
• Strengths: Strong front seven, high pressure rate (Rousseau, Oliver).
• Weaknesses: Secondary lacked speed, addressed in 2025 draft.
• Special Teams: Bass was reliable (85% FG), Camarda bolsters punting, Shenault adds return dynamism.

2025 Outlook

• Offense: Expect ~30 PPG with Allen, Cook, and the O-line. New WRs (Palmer, Moore) and a healthy Kincaid improve passing, though WR1 void persists.
• Defense: Youthful additions (Hairston, Sanders, Jackson, Walker) and Bosa’s signing elevate pass rush and secondary speed, potentially top 8. Early-season rookie integration may cause hiccups.
• Special Teams: Improved with Camarda and Shenault.

2025 Schedule Analysis

Notes

• 2024 Performance: The Bills went 13-4, winning the AFC East. They dominated weaker teams (Jets, Patriots, Jaguars) and beat elites (Chiefs, Lions).
• 2025 SOS: Moderate (ranked ~15-20 per Sharp Football Analysis). Tough opponents (Ravens, Texans, Eagles, Steelers) are balanced by weaker ones (Patriots, Panthers, Browns).
• Home vs. Away: 8-1 at home, 5-3 on the road in 2024. Home games are safer for survivor picks.
• Missing Weeks: The PDF omits Week 1 (confirmed as vs. Ravens via sports data card), Week 9, Week 14, and parts of Week 18 (TBD). Win probabilities for missing weeks are not estimated to avoid speculation.

Survivor Pool Strategy

• Goal: Pick the Bills in a week with high win probability, ideally at home against a weaker opponent, while saving elite teams (e.g., Chiefs, Eagles) for other weeks.
• Key Factors:
• Opponent Strength: Avoid playoff teams (Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Eagles) or tough road games.
• Home Advantage: Highmark Stadium gives 80-90% win probability against non-playoff teams.
• Schedule Flow: Early weeks (1-6) risk upsets due to roster adjustments. Weeks 3-5, 8, and 18 offer favorable matchups.
• Draft Impact: Defensive rookies (Hairston, Sanders, Jackson) and Bosa improve matchups against weaker offenses, though early-season integration may be uneven.
• Weather: Late-season home games (e.g., Week 5, 18) benefit from Buffalo’s cold-weather edge.

Top Survivor Pool Weeks

Week 5 vs. New England Patriots (Home, Sun, Oct 5, 8:20 PM EDT)

• Win Probability: 90%
• Why: The Patriots are rebuilding (3-14 in 2024, 24-21 loss to Bills at home). Buffalo’s defense should overwhelm a young QB (e.g., Drake Maye), and Allen’s offense dominates at home. Primetime adds focus.
• Risk: Minimal; only an Allen injury or fluke upset threatens.
• Strategic Fit: Early-season lock, allowing use of teams like the Chiefs or 49ers later. Preferred over Week 15 (at Patriots) due to home advantage.

Week 8 at Carolina Panthers (Away, Sun, Oct 26, 1:00 PM EDT)

• Win Probability: 85%
• Why: The Panthers were dismal in 2024 (2-15). Even on the road, Buffalo’s superior roster (Allen, improved defense) should cruise against a rebuilding offense. Carolina’s 2024 defense allowed 29.1 PPG.
• Risk: Low; road game adds slight upset risk, but Panthers lack firepower.
• Strategic Fit: Mid-season pick post-bye, preserving home games for later or other teams for early weeks.

Week 3 vs. Miami Dolphins (Home, Thu, Sep 18, 8:15 PM EDT)

• Win Probability: 85%
• Why: The Bills own the Dolphins (31-10 away, 30-27 home in 2024) and have won five straight AFC East titles. Miami struggles in Buffalo’s weather, and the defense exploits Tua Tagovailoa’s limitations.
• Risk: Moderate; divisional games can be close, and short-week primetime adds slight volatility.
• Strategic Fit: Early pick to secure a win, though Week 5 is safer.

Week 18 vs. New York Jets (Home, TBD)

• Win Probability: 85%
• Why: The Bills crushed the Jets 40-14 at home in 2024. Buffalo’s defense stifles inconsistent Jets QBs (e.g., Aaron Rodgers or a backup), and Allen thrives in divisional games.
• Risk: Moderate; TBD date risks late-season rest for starters if playoff seeding is locked. Weather could be a factor.
• Strategic Fit: Late-season option if not used earlier, but Week 5 is more certain.

Weeks to Avoid

• Week 1 vs. Ravens: Playoff-caliber opponent; risky opener.
• Week 12 at Texans: Strong team on the road in primetime.
• Week 13 at Steelers: Tough road matchup at Acrisure Stadium.
• Week 17 vs. Eagles: Elite NFC team, even at home.

Road Games (Weeks 2, 6, 10, 15, 16): Divisional (Jets, Dolphins, Patriots) or weaker opponents (Browns) are safer at home.

Recommended Week

Week 5 vs. New England Patriots (Home, Oct 5) is the best survivor pool pick. The Bills are near locks (90% win probability) against a rebuilding Patriots team at Highmark Stadium, and the early-season timing allows flexibility to use other elite teams (e.g., Chiefs, Eagles) later. If you prefer a later pick, Week 8 at Carolina Panthers is a strong alternative (85%), leveraging Buffalo’s roster advantage against a weak opponent, though the road factor adds slight risk.

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

• 2025 Outlook: Projected 12-13 wins, favored in most games due to Allen and defensive upgrades.
• Roster Health: Monitor Allen, Milano, and O-line injuries. Depth mitigates some risks.
• Weather Factor: Home games in Weeks 3, 5, 11, 17, and 18 benefit from Buffalo’s cold-weather advantage, especially against warm-weather teams (Dolphins).
• Pool Size: In larger pools, Week 8 at Panthers may differentiate from popular picks like Week 5.
• Opponent Trends: Patriots, Panthers, and Browns were bottom-tier in 2024 and are unlikely to improve significantly in 2025.

Final Recommendation

For a 2025 NFL survivor pool, pick the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 vs. the New England Patriots (Oct 5, home). This matchup offers a 90% win probability against a weak opponent, ideal for an early-season lock. Alternatively, Week 8 at Carolina Panthers (Oct 26) is a strong mid-season pick with 85% win probability, balancing road risk with a favorable matchup. Avoid using the Bills against playoff teams (Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Eagles) or in riskier road games.