Los Angeles chargers

Team Overview

The Los Angeles Chargers enter 2025 with a revamped roster under Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz, aiming to build on their 2024 playoff appearance. With Justin Herbert’s elite arm, a bolstered rushing attack, and a gritty defense, the Chargers are a dangerous team. For survivor pool players, their schedule offers prime picking opportunities, but divisional battles and a tough December slate require careful timing. This analysis breaks down their roster, draft, metrics, and schedule to identify the best weeks to ride the Bolts.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Justin Herbert (4,278 yards, 28 TDs in 2024), Taylor Heinicke, Trey Lance. Herbert’s toughness and elite playmaking make him a survivor pool cornerstone. Heinicke and Lance compete for the backup role.
  • Running Backs: Omarion Hampton (2025 1st-round pick), Najee Harris (free agent, 1,045 yards in 2024), J.K. Dobbins, Scott Matlock (FB). Hampton’s physicality and Harris’ workhorse style align with Harbaugh’s run-heavy vision.
  • Wide Receivers: Ladd McConkey (82 catches, 1,149 yards in 2024), Tre Harris (2025 2nd-round pick), Mike Williams (free agent), Quentin Johnston, KeAndre Lambert-Smith (2025 5th-round pick), Jalen Reagor, Brendan Rice. McConkey’s breakout and Harris’ downfield ability boost Herbert’s options.
  • Tight Ends: Tyler Conklin (free agent), Will Dissly, Oronde Gadsden II (2025 5th-round pick). Conklin and Dissly are reliable, while Gadsden’s athleticism adds upside.
  • Offensive Line: LT Rashawn Slater, RT Joe Alt, G Zion Johnson, G Mekhi Becton (free agent), C Andre James (free agent), Jamaree Salyer, Branson Taylor (2025 6th-round pick). A strong unit with Slater and Alt as bookends, though Johnson’s shift to center is a storyline to watch.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: Edge: Khalil Mack (8.5 sacks in 2024), Tuli Tuipulotu, Bud Dupree, Kyle Kennard (2025 4th-round pick). Interior: Jamaree Caldwell (2025 3rd-round pick), Da’Shawn Hand (free agent), Otito Ogbonnia. Mack leads a solid edge group, but interior depth relies on Caldwell’s development.
  • Linebackers: Daiyan Henley, Kana’i Mauga, Denzel Perryman. Henley’s emergence as a tackler gives this unit stability, though depth is thin.
  • Secondary: CB Donte Jackson (free agent), Tarheeb Still, Trikweze Bridges (2025 7th-round pick). S Derwin James Jr., Elijah Molden, R.J. Mickens (2025 6th-round pick). James and Molden anchor a versatile group, with Bridges and Mickens adding special teams value.
  • Special Teams: K Dustin Hopkins (88.2% FG in 2024), P JK Scott, KR/PR Derius Davis. Hopkins’ reliability is a plus, and Davis’ speed adds return game spark.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 22: RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) – 1,500+ yards, 15 TDs in 2023 and 2024. A physical, three-down back to lead Harbaugh’s run game.
  • Round 2, Pick 55: WR Tre Harris (Ole Miss) – 60 catches, 1,030 yards in 2024. Big, physical receiver for Herbert.
  • Round 3, Pick 86: DT Jamaree Caldwell (Oregon) – Space-eating tackle to replace Poona Ford. Immediate rotational impact.
  • Round 4, Pick 118: EDGE Kyle Kennard (South Carolina) – Hard-working pass rusher to develop behind Mack.
  • Round 5, Pick 150: WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Auburn) – 4.37 speed, 981 yards in 2024. Vertical threat and potential returner.
  • Round 5, Pick 156: TE Oronde Gadsden II (Syracuse) – Record-setting TE with long arms and catch radius. Developmental pass-catcher.
  • Round 6, Pick 199: OL Branson Taylor (Pittsburgh) – Versatile lineman for depth, likely a swing tackle/guard.
  • Round 6, Pick 214: S R.J. Mickens (Clemson) – 89.8 PFF coverage grade in 2024. Special teams contributor with starter potential.
  • Round 7, Pick 256: CB Trikweze Bridges (Florida) – 38 tackles, 2 INTs in 2024. Competes for a roster spot.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense

  • Yards: 17th (341.1 YPG)
  • Points: 15th (23.8 PPG)
  • DVOA: 12th
  • Passing DVOA: 10th
  • Rushing DVOA: 17th
  • EPA/Play: 8th
  • EPA/Dropback: 7th
  • EPA/Rush: 16th
  • Pass TDs: 11th (26)
  • Rush TDs: 18th (14) Herbert’s efficiency carried an offense lacking playmakers, with McConkey stepping up as a rookie.


Defense

  • Yards Allowed: 14th (339.2 YPG)
  • Points Allowed: 13th (22.1 PPG)
  • DVOA: 11th
  • Pass Defense DVOA: 13th
  • Rush Defense DVOA: 10th Mack and James led a physical unit, but depth issues hurt late-season performance.


2025 Outlook: Hampton and Harris should elevate the run game, pushing the offense into the top 10. The defense, with Caldwell and Kennard, should maintain its physical identity but needs secondary depth.


2025 Schedule Analysis

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Fri, 9/5 Kansas City Chiefs Away 8:00 PM ET, YouTube 28% Poor: Tough opener against the Chiefs in Brazil. Avoid.
2 Sun, 9/14 Las Vegas Raiders Away 10:00 PM ET, ESPN 60% Moderate: Raiders are improving, but Chargers’ physicality could win out on the road.
3 Sun, Sep 21 Denver Broncos Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 65% Good: Home opener against a rebuilding Broncos team is a solid pick.
4 Sun, 9/28 New York Giants Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 75% Excellent: Giants’ weaker roster makes this a safe home pick.
5 Sun, Oct 5 Washington Commanders Home 4:25 PM ET, FOX 62% Good: Commanders’ young roster faces a tough test at SoFi.
6 Sun, 10/12 Miami Dolphins Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 55% Poor: Dolphins’ speed and home field make this a trap.
7 Sun, Oct 19 Indianapolis Colts Away 4:05 PM ET, CBS 58% Poor: Colts’ improving offense and road game risk make this dicey.
8 Thu, 10/23 Minnesota Vikings Home 8:15 PM ET, PRIME 60% Moderate: Vikings are tough, but Chargers at home on a short week could hold.
9 Sun, Nov 2 Tennessee Titans Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 70% Excellent: Titans’ rebuilding roster is a favorable road matchup.
10 Sun, 11/9 Pittsburgh Steelers Home 8:20 PM ET, NBC 58% Moderate: Steelers’ defense is stout, but Chargers at home are competitive.
11 Sun, Nov 16 Jacksonville Jaguars Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 65% Good: Jaguars’ inconsistency makes this a winnable road game.
12 Sun, 11/23 Arizona Cardinals Home 4:05 PM ET, CBS 68% Good: Cardinals’ offense struggles against Chargers’ physical defense.
13 Sun, 11/30 Las Vegas Raiders Home 4:25 PM ET, CBS 70% Excellent: Home divisional game against a weaker Raiders team.
14 Mon, 12/8 Philadelphia Eagles Home 8:15 PM ET, ESPN 45% Poor: Super Bowl champs are a tough matchup, even at home.
15 Sun, 12/14 Kansas City Chiefs Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 40% Poor: Chiefs’ dominance and divisional rivalry make this risky.
16 Sun, 12/21 Dallas Cowboys Away 1:00 PM ET, FOX 50% Poor: Cowboys’ talent and road game make this a trap.
17 Sun, 12/28 Houston Texans Home 1:00 PM ET, TBD 55% Moderate: Texans’ young core is tough, but Chargers at home are competitive.
18 Sat, 1/4 Denver Broncos Away 1:00 PM ET, TBD 60% Moderate: Divisional road game, but Broncos’ rebuilding roster gives Chargers an edge.
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Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • The Chargers’ 33.6% play-action rate was 2nd in the NFL, showcasing Harbaugh’s commitment to the run game despite a 17th-ranked rushing attack.
  • Herbert’s 7th-ranked EPA/dropback highlights his ability to carry the offense despite limited weapons beyond McConkey.
  • The defense ranked 10th in rush defense DVOA, with Mack and Henley excelling, but struggled with pass rush depth after losing Poona Ford.
  • Hopkins’ 88.2% field goal accuracy was clutch in close games, a key factor for survivor pool confidence.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Chargers are a Streamable survivor pool option, offering multiple favorable matchups thanks to Herbert’s reliability and Harbaugh’s physical identity. Their early-season home games against weaker opponents are prime targets, but a tough December slate and divisional risks require caution. Avoid burning them in high-future-value weeks or against elite teams like the Chiefs or Eagles. Target home games against rebuilding teams to maximize value.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 4 vs. New York Giants (Home, 75% win probability): The Giants’ rebuilding roster struggles against the Chargers’ physical offense and defense at SoFi.
  • Week 9 vs. Tennessee Titans (Away, 70% win probability): The Titans’ lack of offensive firepower makes this a safe road pick for the Chargers.
  • Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Home, 70% win probability): A home divisional game against a weaker Raiders team is a strong choice.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs: Opening against the Chiefs in Brazil is a survivor pool nightmare. Avoid.
  • Week 14 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: The defending Super Bowl champs are too risky, even at home.
  • Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: A divisional rematch against Mahomes is a high-risk pick.
  • Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys: A road game against a talented Cowboys team is a trap.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Home vs. Road Splits: The Chargers were 6-3 at home in 2024, compared to 4-4 on the road. Prioritize home games like Weeks 4, 12, and 13.
  • Injury Risks: Monitor Hampton and Harris’ health, as the run game is central to Harbaugh’s plan. Herbert’s durability mitigates some concerns.
  • Divisional Games: The AFC West is brutal with the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos. Avoid road divisional games (Weeks 1, 2, 18) due to upset potential.
  • Late Bye Week: A Week 12 bye means the Chargers grind through 11 games before resting, potentially impacting late-season performance. Plan picks before the bye.


Final Verdict

The Los Angeles Chargers are a solid survivor pool option in 2025, blending Herbert’s elite play, a revamped run game, and a physical defense. Their schedule offers several winnable home games against rebuilding teams like the Giants and Raiders, making Weeks 4, 9, and 13 prime picking spots. However, their tough December slate and divisional challenges demand strategic timing. Use the Chargers early to mid-season at home to capitalize on their strengths while saving top-tier teams like the Chiefs for later. Bolt up for a smart, safe pick.

  • When is the best week to pick the Chargers in my 2025 survivor pool?

    Week 4 vs. the Giants (75% win probability) is the safest bet. The Giants’ weaker roster and SoFi Stadium’s home advantage make it a low-risk pick. Weeks 9 (Titans) and 13 (Raiders) are also strong.

  • Should I avoid the Chargers in divisional games for survivor pools?

    Yes, especially road games. Weeks 1 (at Chiefs) and 2 (at Raiders) are risky due to divisional familiarity and upset potential. Stick to home divisional games like Week 13 vs. the Raiders.

  • How do the Chargers’ 2025 draft picks impact survivor pool decisions?

    Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris add offensive firepower, boosting Herbert’s efficiency and the run game. This makes the Chargers more reliable in favorable matchups, especially at home against weaker defenses.

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