indianapolis colts

Team Overview

The Indianapolis Colts head into the 2025 NFL season with a revamped roster, aiming to snap a four-year playoff drought under head coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard. With a quarterback competition between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, a bolstered tight end room led by rookie Tyler Warren, and a defense under new coordinator Lou Anarumo, the Colts are a wild card. For survivor pool players, their schedule offers a few safe bets but is littered with divisional traps and tough road games. This analysis breaks down their roster, draft, and schedule to guide your survivor pool strategy.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (2,108 yards, 9 TDs in 2024, limited to 10 starts), Daniel Jones (free agent signing), Riley Leonard (rookie). Richardson’s dual-threat ability (5.7 YPC) is electric but raw; Jones adds veteran stability, while Leonard is a developmental pick.
  • Running Backs: Jonathan Taylor (1,312 yards, 10 TDs in 2024), D.J. Giddens (rookie), Tyler Goodson. Taylor’s explosiveness (4.8 YPC) is a cornerstone, but depth was an issue until Giddens’s arrival.
  • Wide Receivers: Michael Pittman Jr. (1,082 yards, 6 TDs), Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell. Pittman’s reliability and Downs’s slot quickness give Richardson targets, though the group lacks a true deep threat.
  • Tight Ends: Tyler Warren (rookie, 104 catches, 1,451 scrimmage yards at Penn State), Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree. Warren’s versatility as a receiver and blocker fills a massive 2024 void (467 TE receiving yards, 31st).
  • Offensive Line: LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Matt Goncalves (2024 rookie, moved from tackle), RT Braden Smith, Jalen Travis (rookie). Losing Will Fries to free agency hurts, but Goncalves and Travis (no sacks allowed in 2024) add depth to a unit ranked 15th in pass block win rate.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: DE J.T. Tuimoloau (rookie), DE Laiatu Latu, DT DeForest Buckner (7 sacks), DT Grover Stewart, DT Tim Smith (rookie). Buckner and Stewart (both 31) anchor a solid interior, while Tuimoloau adds edge youth.
  • Linebackers: Zaire Franklin (148 tackles, All-Pro), Jaylon Carlies, Hunter Wohler (rookie, converted safety). Losing E.J. Speed to Houston weakens pass coverage, but Wohler’s 191 tackles over two college seasons bring upside.
  • Secondary: CB Kenny Moore II (slot, 3 INTs), CB Justin Walley (rookie), CB JuJu Brents, S Julian Blackmon (free agent pending), S Nick Cross. Moore’s elite slot play is a strength, but depth and Blackmon’s status are concerns.
  • Special Teams: K Matt Gay (87.5% FG), P Rigoberto Sanchez. Gay’s reliability and Sanchez’s 45.8-yard punting average are steady but unspectacular.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 14: TE Tyler Warren (Penn State) – 104 catches, 1,451 scrimmage yards. Multi-dimensional TE who rarely leaves the field.
  • Round 2, Pick 45: DE J.T. Tuimoloau (Ohio State) – All-Big Ten, stout run defender. Adds edge depth with three veterans in contract years.
  • Round 3, Pick 80: CB Justin Walley (Minnesota) – Depth pick for a thin secondary. Strong camp could see him on the field.
  • Round 4, Pick 127: OT Jalen Travis (Iowa State) – 6’8”, 339 lbs, no sacks allowed in 2024. Swing tackle with RT potential.
  • Round 5, Pick 151: RB D.J. Giddens (Kansas State) – No-star recruit turned reliable backup for Taylor.
  • Round 6, Pick 189: QB Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) – Playoff QB with Indiana ties. Developmental prospect.
  • Round 6, Pick 190: DT Tim Smith (Alabama) – 14.5 TFLs in college. Future-proofing for aging Buckner and Stewart.
  • Round 7, Pick 232: LB Hunter Wohler (Wisconsin) – 191 tackles over two seasons. Converted safety to replace E.J. Speed.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

  • Offense: Ranked 26th in total yards (312.4 YPG) and 24th in points scored (20.9 PPG). Richardson’s 58.1% completion and 12 INTs in 10 starts showed growing pains. Taylor’s 1,312 rushing yards were a bright spot, but the TE group’s 467 receiving yards (31st) was a glaring weakness. The O-line’s 15th-ranked pass block win rate (60%) was solid but inconsistent in run blocking (20th, 70% win rate).
  • Defense: Ranked 26th in passing yards allowed (234.6 YPG) and 31st in rushing yards allowed (140.2 YPG), leading to 23rd in points allowed (23.8 PPG). Buckner’s 7 sacks and Franklin’s 148 tackles were standout, but the loss of E.J. Speed and secondary depth issues hurt. A +3 turnover differential was respectable.
  • 2025 Outlook: Warren’s addition and O-line depth (Travis, Goncalves) should boost the passing game, while Tuimoloau and Wohler address defensive youth. Anarumo’s scheme and a healthy Richardson could push the Colts toward 9-8 or 10-7, but QB uncertainty caps their ceiling.


2025 Indianapolis Colts Schedule Analysis

The Colts face the 22nd-easiest schedule based on projected opponent win totals, with winnable home games but tricky divisional and road matchups. Win probabilities are estimated from Vegas odds, 2024 performance, and schedule strength.

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, 9/7 Miami Dolphins Away 1:00 PM, CBS 45% Poor: Road opener against a playoff hopeful with a fast offense. Risky pick.
2 Sun, 9/14 Denver Broncos Away 4:05 PM, CBS 50% Poor: Bo Nix’s growth and Denver’s home-field advantage make this a toss-up.
3 Sun, 9/21 Tennessee Titans Home 1:00 PM, CBS 70% Good: Rebuilding Titans face a Colts team strong at home (5-3 in 2024). Solid pick.
4 Sun, Sep 28 Los Angeles Rams Home 4:05 PM, FOX 55% Moderate: Rams’ offense is potent, but Colts’ home edge and Warren’s debut make it winnable.
5 Sun, 10/5 Las Vegas Raiders Home 1:00 PM, FOX 68% Good: Raiders’ QB woes and Colts’ home strength (5-3 in 2024) favor Indy.
6 Sun, Oct 12 Arizona Cardinals Away 1:00 PM, FOX 48% Poor: Kyler Murray’s mobility and a road game spell trouble. Avoid.
7 Sun, 10/19 Los Angeles Chargers Away 4:05 PM, CBS 42% Avoid: Harbaugh’s physical Chargers in a road game are a survivor pool trap.
8 Sun, 10/26 Tennessee Titans Home 4:25 PM, CBS 72% Top-Tier: Titans’ weak offense and Colts’ home dominance make this a lock.
9 Sun, 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers Home 1:00 PM, CBS 52% Moderate: Steelers’ physicality is a challenge, but Indy’s home edge keeps it close.
10 Sun, 11/9 Atlanta Falcons Away 9:30 AM, NFL 47% Poor: Early London game against a rising Falcons team is too risky.
11 Sun, 11/16 Kansas City Chiefs Away 1:00 PM, CBS 35% Avoid: Mahomes and Arrowhead are a survivor pool nightmare. Steer clear.
12 Sun, Nov 23 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 PM, CBS 65% Good: Jaguars’ QB uncertainty and Indy’s 3-1 home divisional record (2024) favor the Colts.
13 Sun, 11/30 Houston Texans Away 1:00 PM, CBS 35% Avoid: Texans’ home dominance and E.J. Speed’s familiarity make this a trap.
14 Sun, 12/7 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 PM, CBS 68% Good: Second Jags game at home with Indy’s divisional edge. Strong pick.
15 Sun, 12/14 Seattle Seahawks Away 4:25 PM, CBS 40% Avoid: Seattle’s home field and physicality are tough for Indy’s young roster.
16 Sun, 12/21 Denver Broncos Home 1:00 PM, CBS 60% Moderate: Broncos’ road struggles (3-5 in 2024) give Indy an edge at home.
17 Sun, 12/28 Indianapolis Colts Away 1:00 PM, TBD - -
18 Sat, 1/4 Houston Texans Home 1:00 PM, TBD 45% Poor: Late-season divisional game with playoff implications is too unpredictable.
A screenshot of an app called eliminate guessmark maximize winning potential

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • Offensive Woes: The Colts’ 26th-ranked offense (312.4 YPG) struggled due to Richardson’s 58.1% completion and 12 INTs. The TE group’s 467 receiving yards (31st) was a glaring hole, addressed by Warren’s draft selection.
  • Defensive Struggles: Ranked 31st in rushing yards allowed (140.2 YPG) and 26th in passing (234.6 YPG), the defense collapsed in key moments. Buckner’s 7 sacks and Franklin’s 148 tackles were bright spots.
  • Home Strength: Indy went 5-3 at home (3-1 vs. AFC South), with a +3.2-point differential compared to -2.5 on the road.
  • Divisional Splits: The Colts split with Houston and Jacksonville (2-2) but swept Tennessee (2-0), showing strength against weaker divisional foes.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Colts are a Streamable survivor pool option, with a handful of winnable home games against subpar opponents (Titans, Jaguars, Raiders) but too many traps to be a top-tier anchor. Their 22nd-easiest schedule includes four AFC South games at home, where they excel (3-1 in 2024). However, road games against elite teams (Chiefs, Texans, Chargers) and an early London trip (Week 10) are landmines. Save the Colts for mid-season home matchups, and avoid burning them in divisional road games or prime-time spots. The likely Week 17 bye gives flexibility for late-season planning.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 8 vs. Tennessee Titans (Home, 72% win probability): The Titans’ rebuilding offense (27th in points in 2024) faces a Colts defense that swept them last year. Indy’s 5-3 home record seals this as a top pick.
  • Week 12 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home, 65% win probability): The Jaguars’ QB uncertainty and Indy’s 3-1 home divisional record make this a safe mid-season option.
  • Week 14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Home, 68% win probability): A repeat home matchup against a Jaguars team Indy handles well at Lucas Oil Stadium. A strong late-season pick.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Away): Mahomes and Arrowhead are a survivor pool death trap. Indy’s 3-5 road record in 2024 and 35% win odds scream avoid.
  • Week 13 vs. Houston Texans (Away): Houston’s home dominance (6-2 in 2024) and E.J. Speed’s knowledge of Indy’s schemes make this a divisional trap.
  • Week 10 vs. Atlanta Falcons (London): A 9:30 AM neutral-site game against a rising Falcons team with Kirk Cousins is too unpredictable for survivor pools.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • QB Uncertainty: The Richardson-Jones competition could lead to offensive inconsistency. Monitor preseason reports to gauge who starts, as Richardson’s upside is higher but riskier.
  • Divisional Familiarity: Facing Houston and Jacksonville twice each (plus E.J. Speed’s move to Houston) makes road AFC South games risky. Stick to home divisional matchups.
  • Home vs. Road Splits: Indy’s +3.2-point home differential vs. -2.5 on the road favors picks at Lucas Oil Stadium (Weeks 3, 8, 12, 14).
  • Injury Concerns: Richardson’s injury history (missed 7 games in 2024) and the secondary’s thin depth (Brents missed 23 of 34 games) are red flags. Check injury reports before locking in.
  • Future Value: The Colts aren’t a top-tier team, so use them in Weeks 8 or 12 to save elite teams (e.g., Chiefs, Eagles) for later.


Final Verdict

The Indianapolis Colts are a solid but not spectacular survivor pool option for 2025, with home games against the Titans (Week 8) and Jaguars (Weeks 12, 14) offering high win probabilities and low future value conflicts. Their revamped offense (Warren, Travis) and home-field edge make them streamable, but avoid road traps (Weeks 11, 13) and the London game (Week 10). With a likely Week 17 bye and a favorable mid-season schedule, the Colts can be a sneaky mid-tier pick if timed right. Lock them in at home against weak AFC South foes, and you’ll stay alive in your pool.

  • What are the best weeks to pick the Indianapolis Colts in a 2025 NFL survivor pool?

    Weeks 8 (vs. Titans, 72%) and 12 or 14 (vs. Jaguars, 65-68%) are safest. Indy’s 5-3 home record and 3-1 AFC South home dominance in 2024 make these strong picks.

  • Should I avoid the Colts in road games for survivor pools?

    Yes, especially Weeks 11 (Chiefs) and 13 (Texans). Indy’s 3-5 road record and -2.5-point differential in 2024, plus tough opponents, make road picks risky.

  • How does the Colts’ QB situation impact survivor pool decisions?

    Richardson’s upside (5.7 YPC rushing) is offset by inconsistency (58.1% completion). Jones is safer but less dynamic. Monitor the starter in preseason; home games are still safer bets.

Latest News from Pro Football Focus (PFF)

More Posts