What are the best weeks to pick the Commanders in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?

Weeks 3 (vs. Raiders), 9 (vs. Seahawks), and 13 (vs. Broncos) offer win probabilities of 70–75% at home against manageable opponents. Daniels’ playmaking and a strong D-line make these safe bets.

Should I avoid divisional games for the Commanders in survivor pools?

Yes, NFC East games are risky due to rivalry unpredictability. Week 1 vs. Giants is viable at home, but avoid Weeks 7 (at Cowboys), 16 (vs. Eagles), and 18 (at Eagles) due to upset potential.

How do the Commanders’ 2025 roster changes impact survivor pool picks?

Additions like Tunsil, Samuel, and Conerly boost the offense, but losing Fowler and Allen weakens the pass rush. Home games against weak offenses (Raiders, Seahawks) are safer, as the D-line can still dominate.

Washington commanders

Washington Commanders 2025 NFL Survivor Pool Preseason Analysis

The Washington Commanders enter 2025 as a team on the rise, fresh off a 12-5 season and an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2024. With Jayden Daniels cementing himself as a franchise quarterback and a revamped roster under GM Adam Peters, the Commanders are no longer a pushover. For survivor pool players, Washington offers a mix of winnable games and high-profile traps. This analysis dives into their roster, draft class, 2024 metrics, and 2025 schedule to identify the best weeks to pick the Commanders and the landmines to avoid. Let’s break it down and build a winning strategy.

Team Roster Review

Offense

Quarterback: Jayden Daniels (3,439 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs in 2024; 855 rushing yards, 6 TDs), Jake Haener (QB2). Daniels, the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year, is a dual-threat superstar whose mobility and deep-ball accuracy elevate Washington’s attack. Haener’s limited experience makes him a question mark if Daniels is sidelined.
Running Back: Brian Robinson Jr. (1,101 yards, 9 TDs in 2024), Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (rookie), Chris Rodriguez Jr. Robinson’s power and Ekeler’s versatility form a dynamic duo, with Croskey-Merritt adding speed as a change-of-pace back. Depth is solid, but Robinson’s health is key.
Wide Receiver: Terry McLaurin (1,281 yards, 8 TDs in 2024), Deebo Samuel (trade acquisition), Jaylin Lane (rookie), Luke McCaffrey, Noah Brown. McLaurin and Samuel provide explosive playmaking, though Lane’s slot role is unproven. The group lacks depth beyond the top two.
Tight End: Zach Ertz (566 yards, 4 TDs in 2024), Ben Sinnott, Cole Turner. Ertz remains a reliable target for Daniels, but his age (35) limits upside. Sinnott’s athleticism could shine if given more snaps.
Offensive Line: LT Laremy Tunsil (trade acquisition), LG Andrew Wylie, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Brandon Coleman, RT Josh Conerly Jr. (rookie). Tunsil and Conerly bolster a line that allowed 47 sacks in 2024, but Coleman’s inexperience at guard is a concern. This unit’s growth is critical for Daniels’ protection.

Defense

Defensive Line: Edge: Dorance Armstrong (7.5 sacks in 2024), Deatrich Wise Jr., Javon Kinlaw, Jacob Martin. Interior: Daron Payne (6 sacks), Eddie Goldman, John Ridgeway. Losing Dante Fowler Jr. (10.5 sacks) and Jonathan Allen hurts, but Payne and Kinlaw provide size. The edge rush lacks a true star.
Linebacker: Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, Kain Medrano (rookie), Jordan Magee, Dominique Hampton. Wagner and Luvu are a top-tier tandem, with Medrano’s speed (4.46 40-yard dash) adding a hybrid element. Depth is improving but untested.
Secondary: CB Marshon Lattimore (trade acquisition), Trey Amos (rookie), Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones; S Will Harris, Quan Martin, Darrick Forrest. Lattimore and Amos form a promising CB duo, but the secondary’s 7 interceptions in 2024 highlight a need for more takeaways.
Special Teams: K Joey Slye (83% FG in 2024), P Tress Way, LS Tyler Ott. Slye’s inconsistency and Way’s declining punting distance are concerns, but the unit is functional with Lane’s potential as a returner.

2025 Draft Class

Round 1, Pick 29: OT Josh Conerly Jr. (Oregon) – Third-team All-American, 1,985 college snaps at LT. Athletic tackle to pair with Tunsil, likely starting at RT.
Round 2, Pick 61: CB Trey Amos (Ole Miss) – 3 INTs, 13 PBUs in 2024. Physical press-man corner with Day 1 starter potential opposite Lattimore.
Round 4, Pick 128: WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech) – 4.34 40-yard dash, 1,102 yards in college. Speedy slot receiver and returner to boost Daniels’ weapons.
Round 6, Pick 205: LB Kain Medrano (UCLA) – 4.46 40-yard dash, fastest among LBs at combine. Hybrid LB/safety for Quinn’s scheme.
Round 7, Pick 245: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Arizona) – Explosive runner with cut-to-daylight style. Change-of-pace back for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

Peters’ draft prioritized speed and protection for Daniels, addressing the offensive line and secondary while adding playmakers. The lack of an elite edge rusher is a miss, but late-round steals like Medrano and Lane add upside.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense

Points per game: 26.8 (5th in NFL)
Total yards per game: 359.4 (7th)
Passing yards per game: 224.7 (15th)
Rushing yards per game: 134.7 (8th)
Takeaways: 20 (15th)
2025 Outlook: Additions of Tunsil, Samuel, and Conerly boost an already potent attack. Daniels’ growth could push Washington into the top-5 in scoring, but guard play and receiver depth are concerns.

Defense

Points allowed per game: 22.6 (18th)
Total yards allowed per game: 339.2 (13th)
Passing yards allowed per game: 214.5 (15th)
Rushing yards allowed per game: 124.7 (23rd)
Takeaways: 17 (20th)
2025 Outlook: Losing Fowler and Allen weakens the D-line, but Payne, Kinlaw, and a bolstered secondary (Lattimore, Amos) keep this unit competitive. Run defense must improve to contend.

2025 Schedule Analysis

Washington’s schedule ranks 13th-toughest based on 2025 Vegas win totals, with eight games against 2024 playoff teams. Below is the schedule with survivor pool fit, using estimated win probabilities from market data and matchup analysis.

Week	Date	Opponent	Location	Time/Network	Win Probability	Survivor Pool Fit
Week	Date	Opponent	Location	Time/Network	2025 Win Probability %	Survivor Pool Fit
1	Sun, 9/7	New York Giants	Home	1:00 PM, FOX	70%	Good: Giants’ offense struggles with Russell Wilson’s adjustment. Home opener momentum makes this a solid pick.
2	Thu, Sep 11	Green Bay Packers	Away	8:15 PM, PRIME	45%	Poor: Tough road game against a playoff-caliber Packers team in prime time. Avoid.
3	Sun, 9/21	Las Vegas Raiders	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	75%	Excellent: Raiders’ offense is limited, and Washington’s home-field edge makes this a near-lock.
4	Sun, Sep 28	Atlanta Falcons	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	55%	Poor: Falcons’ run game and home advantage make this a trap. Daniels vs. Cousins is too close to call.
5	Sun, 10/5	Los Angeles Chargers	Away	4:25 PM, FOX	58%	Moderate: Chargers’ secondary is weak, but Harbaugh’s gritty style could keep this close. Risky road pick.
6	Sun, Oct 12	Chicago Bears	Home	8:15 PM, ABC	68%	Good: Bears’ offense is improving, but Washington’s defense should handle Caleb Williams at home.
7	Sun, 10/19	Dallas Cowboys	Away	4:25 PM, FOX	48%	Poor: Divisional road game with Dallas seeking revenge. High-risk pick.
8	Sun, Oct 26	Kansas City Chiefs	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	40%	Poor: Facing Mahomes on the road is a survivor pool nightmare. Avoid.
9	Sun, Nov 2	Seattle Seahawks	Home	8:20 PM, NBC	72%	Good: Seattle’s O-line struggles, and Washington’s D-line could dominate. Strong home pick.
10	Sun, Nov 9	Miami Dolphins	Away	9:30 AM, NFL	65%	Moderate: International game in Madrid adds uncertainty, but Miami’s aging roster favors Washington.
11	Sun, 11/16	Bye Week	-	-	-	-
12	Sun, 11/23	Bye Week	-	-	-	-
13	Sun, Nov 30	Denver Broncos	Home	8:20 PM, NBC	70%	Good: Bo Nix vs. Daniels is a winnable matchup, and Washington’s home advantage helps.
14	Sun, 12/7	Minnesota Vikings	Away	1:00 PM, FOX	45%	Poor: Vikings’ weapons and home-field edge make this a tough road game. Avoid.
15	Sun, 12/14	New York Giants	Away	1:00 PM, FOX	68%	Good: Giants are a weaker opponent, but road divisional games carry risk. Viable if home games are used.
16	TBD	Philadelphia Eagles	Home	TBD, FOX	30%	Poor: Eagles’ pass rush and home dominance make this a dangerous pick. Avoid.
17	Thu, Dec 25	Dallas Cowboys	Home	1:00 PM, NETFLIX	55%	Moderate: Christmas Day home game, but Dallas’s talent and rivalry intensity make it risky.
18	TBD	Philadelphia Eagles	Away	TBD	25%	Poor: Late-season road game against a Super Bowl contender. Survivor pool poison.

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Notes on Key Stats from 2024

Offensive Surge: Washington’s 26.8 points per game and 359.4 total yards were driven by Daniels’ dual-threat ability and McLaurin’s consistency. Their 30+ point games (7 in regular season) tied their total from the previous four years combined.
Defensive Struggles: The Commanders’ run defense (23rd, 124.7 yards per game) and low takeaway count (17, 20th) were glaring weaknesses, exposed in the NFC Championship loss to Philly. Additions like Kinlaw and Goldman aim to fix the run defense.
Hail Mary Heroics: Daniels’ game-winning Hail Mary vs. Chicago in 2024 was iconic, boosting team morale and fan confidence heading into 2025.

Survivor Pool Strategy

The Commanders are a Streamable survivor pool option, offering high-upside home games against weaker opponents but facing a challenging schedule with eight playoff teams. Their 13th-ranked strength of schedule and two bye weeks (Weeks 11, 12) require careful timing. Prioritize home games against teams like the Raiders (Week 3) and Seahawks (Week 9), where Washington’s defensive line and Daniels’ playmaking shine. Avoid road games against elite teams (Chiefs, Eagles, Vikings) and most divisional matchups due to NFC East volatility. Daniels’ health and the offensive line’s cohesion are critical for consistent wins.

Best Survivor Picks

Week 3: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (75% win probability) – The Raiders’ offense lacks firepower, and Washington’s home-field advantage at Northwest Stadium makes this a top-tier pick. Payne and Kinlaw should dominate the trenches.
Week 9: vs. Seattle Seahawks (72% win probability) – Seattle’s porous O-line faces a tough test against Washington’s D-line in prime time. Daniels and Samuel exploit a weak secondary for a safe home win.
Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos (70% win probability) – Bo Nix’s inexperience and Washington’s home dominance make this a strong late-season pick, especially after a bye week.

Weeks to Avoid

Week 2: at Green Bay Packers – A Thursday night road game against a playoff-caliber Packers team is a survivor pool trap. Green Bay’s home advantage and offensive weapons make this too risky.
Week 8: at Kansas City Chiefs – Facing Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team on the road is a no-go. Washington’s defense isn’t ready for this gauntlet.
Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles – A late-season road game against a Super Bowl contender with a ferocious pass rush is a death knell for survivor pools.

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

Home vs. Road Splits: Washington went 7-2 at home in 2024, outscoring opponents by 9.8 points per game. Prioritize home games (Weeks 1, 3, 6, 9, 13, 17) for survivor picks.
Divisional Volatility: NFC East games are unpredictable. Week 1 vs. Giants is tempting, but Weeks 7, 16, and 17 (Cowboys, Eagles) carry upset risk due to rivalry intensity.
Injury Concerns: Daniels’ slight frame (47 sacks taken in 2024) and Sam Cosmi’s ACL recovery could impact the offense. Monitor their status before locking in picks.
International Game: The Week 10 game in Madrid vs. Miami adds travel fatigue and a 9:30 AM ET kickoff, increasing upset potential.

Final Verdict

The Washington Commanders are a sneaky survivor pool asset in 2025, blending an explosive offense led by Jayden Daniels with a defense that’s improving under Dan Quinn. Weeks 3 (vs. Raiders) and 9 (vs. Seahawks) are your best bets, offering high win probabilities at home against weaker opponents. Avoid road traps like Green Bay, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, where Washington’s defense could falter. With two bye weeks and a tough schedule, timing is everything—save the Commanders for their home sweet spots to maximize your pool’s longevity.

What are the best weeks to pick the Commanders in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?
Weeks 3 (vs. Raiders), 9 (vs. Seahawks), and 13 (vs. Broncos) offer win probabilities of 70–75% at home against manageable opponents. Daniels’ playmaking and a strong D-line make these safe bets.
Should I avoid divisional games for the Commanders in survivor pools?
Yes, NFC East games are risky due to rivalry unpredictability. Week 1 vs. Giants is viable at home, but avoid Weeks 7 (at Cowboys), 16 (vs. Eagles), and 18 (at Eagles) due to upset potential.
How do the Commanders’ 2025 roster changes impact survivor pool picks?
Additions like Tunsil, Samuel, and Conerly boost the offense, but losing Fowler and Allen weakens the pass rush. Home games against weak offenses (Raiders, Seahawks) are safer, as the D-line can still dominate.