Las Vegas Raiders

Team Overview

The Las Vegas Raiders enter 2025 with a revamped roster under new head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek, aiming to rebound from a dismal 4-13 season in 2024. With veteran QB Geno Smith and a dynamic draft class led by RB Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders are poised for improvement in the competitive AFC West. For survivor pool players, their soft early schedule and offensive upgrades make them a viable mid-tier pick, but divisional games and a shaky secondary demand strategic timing.


Team Roster Review

Offense

  • Quarterback: Geno Smith (3,567 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs in 2024), Aidan O’Connell, Cam Miller (6th-round pick), Tommy Mellott (6th-round pick, transitioning to WR). Smith’s efficiency when protected is a strength, but he struggles under pressure.
  • Running Backs: Ashton Jeanty (1st-round pick, 2024 Heisman runner-up), Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, Zamir White, Dylan Laube. Jeanty’s elite contact balance (152 forced missed tackles in 2024) transforms a previously woeful run game.
  • Wide Receivers: Jakobi Meyers (1,047 yards, 8 TDs in 2024), Jack Bech (2nd-round pick), Tre Tucker, Dont’e Thornton Jr. (4th-round pick), Kyle Philips, Tommy Mellott, Kristian Wilkerson, Zakhari Franklin (UDFA). Bech and Thornton add size and speed to complement Meyers.
  • Tight Ends: Brock Bowers (112 receptions, 1,194 yards, 5 TDs in 2024), Michael Mayer, Ian Thomas. Bowers is an All-Pro talent, though Mayer’s trade rumors linger.
  • Offensive Line: LT Kolton Miller, LG Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Andre James, RG Caleb Rogers (3rd-round pick), RT Charles Grant (3rd-round pick), backups Thayer Munford Jr., Jordan Meredith, Gottlieb Ayedze. Miller’s contract holdout is a concern, but Rogers and Grant bolster a weak unit.


Defense

  • Defensive Line: Edge: Maxx Crosby (14.5 sacks in 2024), Malcolm Koonce, Tyree Wilson, Jonah Laulu. Interior: Christian Wilkins, Adam Butler, Tonka Hemingway (4th-round pick), JJ Pegues (6th-round pick). Crosby’s dominance anchors a solid pass rush, but interior depth is thin.
  • Linebackers: Elandon Roberts, Devin White, Cody Lindenberg (7th-round pick), Amari Burney, Amari Gainer. White’s inconsistency since 2022 and a lack of depth make this a weak spot.
  • Secondary: CBs: Jakorian Bennett, Darien Porter (3rd-round pick), Decamerion Richardson, Eric Stokes, Darnay Holmes. Safeties: Isaiah Pola-Mao, Thomas Harper, Jeremy Chinn, Trey Taylor. Losing Nate Hobbs and Jack Jones leaves the secondary vulnerable despite Porter’s athleticism.
  • Special Teams: K Anders Carlson, P AJ Cole, LS Jacob Bobenmoyer. Cole’s elite punting (49.1 net yards in 2024) is a hidden weapon.


2025 Draft Class

  • Round 1, Pick 6: RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) – 2,228 yards, 152 missed tackles forced in 2024. Generational talent with All-Pro potential.
  • Round 2, Pick 58: WR Jack Bech (TCU) – 1,034 yards, 9 TDs in 2024. Polished route-runner, Senior Bowl MVP.
  • Round 3, Pick 68: CB Darien Porter (Iowa State) – 4.30 40-yard dash, 0.34 yards per coverage snap in 2024. Raw but elite athlete.
  • Round 3, Pick 98: OL Caleb Rogers (Texas Tech) – 55 career starts, versatile guard/tackle. Spot-starter potential.
  • Round 3, Pick 99: OT Charles Grant (William & Mary) – Small-school standout with starter upside at tackle or guard.
  • Round 4, Pick 108: WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (Tennessee) – 6’5”, 4.30 40-yard dash. Deep-threat potential.
  • Round 4, Pick 135: DI Tonka Hemingway (South Carolina) – 42 tackles, 3.5 sacks in 2024. Athletic tweener for interior/edge.
  • Round 6, Pick 180: DI JJ Pegues (Ole Miss) – 309 lbs, versatile with 7 rushing TDs in college. Wildcat option.
  • Round 6, Pick 213: QB Tommy Mellott (Montana State) – 4.39 40-yard dash, transitioning to WR. Elite athlete.
  • Round 6, Pick 215: QB Cam Miller (North Dakota State) – FCS champion, backup QB with rushing upside.
  • Round 7, Pick 222: LB Cody Lindenberg (Minnesota) – Team captain, depth piece with green-dot potential.


Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

  • Offense: Ranked 29th in points per game (17.2), 27th in total yards (312.4). Bowers’ 1,194 receiving yards led TEs, but the run game was abysmal (57.9 PFF rushing grade, worst in NFL).
  • Defense: Ranked 16th in points allowed (22.1), 20th in yards allowed (340.8). Crosby’s 14.5 sacks and a 30.4 PFF coverage grade (dead last) highlight a lopsided unit.
  • 2025 Outlook: Jeanty and Bech elevate the offense to a potential top-20 unit, especially in Chip Kelly’s run-heavy scheme. The defense, bolstered by Porter and Crosby, should improve but needs linebacker and secondary help.


2025 Schedule Analysis

Week Date Opponent Location Time/Network Win Probability Survivor Pool Fit
1 Sun, 9/7 New England Patriots Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 60% Streamable: Patriots’ rebuilding offense faces Crosby’s pass rush. Winnable road opener.
2 Sun, 9/14 Los Angeles Chargers Home 10:00 PM ET, ESPN 45% Avoid: Divisional home game against a playoff-caliber Chargers team is risky.
3 Sun, Sep 21 Washington Commanders Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 55% Streamable: Commanders’ young roster struggles against Raiders’ improved offense.
4 Sun, 9/28 Chicago Bears Home 4:25 PM ET, CBS 65% Top-Tier Anchor: Bears’ QB uncertainty and Raiders’ home edge make this a safe pick.
5 Sun, Oct 5 Indianapolis Colts Away 1:00 PM ET, FOX 52% Avoid: Colts’ balanced attack and road game make this a trap.
6 Sun, 10/12 Jacksonville Jaguars Home 1:00 PM ET, FOX 68% Top-Tier Anchor: Jaguars’ inconsistent offense falters against Crosby and Porter at home.
7 Sun, Oct 19 Kansas City Chiefs Away 1:00 PM ET, CBS 35% Avoid: Divisional road game against Mahomes is a survivor pool killer.
8 Sun, 10/26 Bye Week - - - -
9 Sun, Nov 2 Las Vegas Raiders Away 4:05 PM ET, CBS 58% Streamable: Denver’s defense is tough, but Raiders’ home-field edge helps.
10 Sun, 11/9 Denver Broncos Home 1:00 PM ET, CBS 42% Avoid: Divisional matchup with Denver’s elite defense is too close to call.
11 Sun, Nov 16 Dallas Cowboys Away 4:25 PM ET, CBS 48% Avoid: Cowboys’ offensive firepower makes this a risky road game.
12 Sun, 11/23 Cleveland Browns Away 4:05 PM ET, CBS 62% Streamable: Browns’ QB struggles play into Raiders’ pass rush strengths.
13 Sun, 11/30 Los Angeles Chargers Away 4:25 PM ET, CBS 40% Avoid: Divisional road game against a strong Chargers team is a no-go.
14 Sun, 12/7 Denver Broncos Away 4:05 PM ET, CBS 42% Avoid: Another divisional road game with Denver’s home advantage.
15 Sun, 12/14 Philadelphia Eagles Home 1:00 PM ET, FOX 45% Avoid: Super Bowl champs with Hurts and Barkley are a tough matchup.
16 Sun, 12/21 Houston Texans Away 4:25 PM ET, CBS 40% Avoid: Texans’ playoff pedigree and Stroud’s passing attack are dangerous.
17 Sun, 12/28 New York Giants Home 1:00 PM ET, TBD 70% Top-Tier Anchor: Giants’ shaky offense faces Raiders’ pass rush at home.
18 Sat, 1/4 Kansas City Chiefs Home 1:00 PM ET, TBD 38% Avoid: Divisional finale with playoff implications is too risky.
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Notes on Key Stats from 2024

  • Run Game Woes: The Raiders’ 57.9 PFF rushing grade was the NFL’s worst, with a 26.6% success rate outside of McCormick’s limited flashes (48.7%). Jeanty’s addition is critical.
  • Bowers’ Dominance: Bowers led TEs with 112 receptions and 1,194 yards, earning a 25.9% target share. He’s a cornerstone for 2025.
  • Secondary Struggles: A 30.4 PFF coverage grade (last in NFL) and the loss of Hobbs and Jones highlight a glaring weakness. Porter’s development is key.


Survivor Pool Strategy

The Raiders are a mid-tier survivor pool option with a potent offense led by Jeanty and Bowers, but their inconsistent secondary and tough AFC West schedule limit their reliability. Their home games against weaker opponents (Bears, Jaguars, Giants) offer high win probabilities, ideal for early-to-midseason picks. Avoid divisional games and matchups against playoff-caliber teams like the Eagles and Texans. Use the Raiders strategically in Weeks 4, 6, or 17 to preserve elite picks for later.


Best Survivor Picks

  • Week 4 vs. Chicago Bears (65%): The Bears’ QB uncertainty and Raiders’ home advantage make this a safe early pick.
  • Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (68%): Jacksonville’s inconsistent offense struggles against Crosby’s pass rush in Vegas.
  • Week 17 vs. New York Giants (70%): A late-season home game against a rebuilding Giants team is a strong anchor.


Weeks to Avoid

  • Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Divisional home game against a playoff-contending team with Herbert and Hampton.
  • Week 7 at Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes and a road divisional matchup are a survivor pool death trap.
  • Week 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl champs with Hurts and Barkley are too dangerous, even at home.
  • Week 16 at Houston Texans: Stroud’s passing attack exploits the Raiders’ weak secondary on the road.


Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

  • Home-Field Edge: The Raiders’ 3-5 home record in 2024 improves with Jeanty and a healthier offensive line. Target Weeks 4, 6, and 17 for home games.
  • Defensive Matchups: Crosby’s pass rush thrives against immobile QBs (e.g., Bears, Giants). Avoid mobile QBs like Hurts or Mahomes.
  • Schedule Flow: The bye in Week 8 sets up a favorable stretch (Weeks 9–12). Use the Raiders before tougher December games.
  • Contrarian Value: The Raiders’ mid-tier status makes them less popular, offering value in large pools where others chase favorites.


Final Verdict

The Las Vegas Raiders are a solid survivor pool pick for 2025, thanks to their offensive upgrades with Ashton Jeanty and Jack Bech, plus Maxx Crosby’s elite pass rush. Home matchups against the Bears (Week 4), Jaguars (Week 6), and Giants (Week 17) offer high win probabilities and contrarian value. However, their shaky secondary and brutal AFC West slate (Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos) demand caution. Pick the Raiders in Weeks 4 or 6 to capitalize on their home edge and save blue-chip teams for later rounds.

  • What are the best weeks to pick the Las Vegas Raiders in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?

    Weeks 4 (vs. Bears), 6 (vs. Jaguars), and 17 (vs. Giants) are the safest picks, with win probabilities of 65–70% due to favorable home matchups against weaker offenses.

  • Why should I avoid picking the Raiders against the Chiefs in 2025?

    The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, dominate divisional matchups. Weeks 7 and 18 are risky due to Kansas City’s offensive firepower and the Raiders’ secondary issues (30.4 PFF coverage grade in 2024).

  • How does Ashton Jeanty impact the Raiders’ survivor pool value?

    Jeanty’s elite rushing (152 missed tackles forced in 2024) transforms the Raiders’ run game, boosting their offense and win probability in home games against teams like the Bears and Jaguars.

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