What’s the single safest pick in Week 13?

Right now it’s the Eagles minus the points at Baltimore. They’re the most complete team in football and Baltimore is missing key pieces in the secondary. Detroit on Thanksgiving is a close second.

Should I save the Lions or Eagles for later?

In most pools, no. Both teams have soft schedules remaining (Detroit gets Chicago again Week 17, Philly gets Dallas and Giants). Use the big favorites while they’re still big favorites.

Is Thanksgiving week always this chaotic for survivor pools?

Yes. Short week, emotional spots, turkey comas — ownership gets wild and the “obvious” picks often fail. We’ve seen 40-50% of remaining entries die on a single Thanksgiving team get wiped out multiple times.

Week 13 Survivor Pool Picks: Thanksgiving Hangovers and December Landmines

Man, Week 12 was brutal. Half the country lost on the Cowboys (thanks, Commanders) and the other half got smoked when the Browns forgot how to football against the Steelers on Thursday night. We called Dallas as a classic trap and told you to ride Philly. If you listened, you’re still breathing. If not… sorry about your pool, pal.

On to Week 13. Lines are fresh as of Tuesday morning. We’re using current spreads, win probabilities, and ownership projections to keep you alive.

Football referee signaling a foul, showing a thumbs up, with a stadium background.

Safest Picks This Week (Just Take One and Go Drink Eggnog)

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) at Baltimore Ravens The Eagles are 9-2 and have won seven straight. They’re top-3 in both offensive and defensive EPA/play since Week 6. Baltimore’s secondary is beat up? Jalen Hurts is carving everyone right now. Projected ownership is high (around 35-40% in big pools) but that’s because it’s the single biggest mismatch on the board. → Eagles have covered 9+ in five of their last six wins.
Detroit Lions (-10) vs Chicago Bears Detroit is 10-1 and playing on Thanksgiving Thursday. They’ve covered double-digits in four straight home games. Chicago just fired their OC and is starting… checks notes… still Caleb Williams against a Lions defense that’s suddenly elite against the pass. Ownership will be sky-high on short week, but sometimes the boring pick is the alive pick.
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at Green Bay Packers (Thanksgiving night) Tua is back, Tyreek and Waddle are healthy, and Miami is 5-1 when the weather is above 50°F. Green Bay is good, but they’re coming off a emotional win vs San Francisco and now get the league’s fastest offense on a short week. Dolphins have won four straight on Thanksgiving and covered the last three.

Traps to Avoid (These Will Murder Pools)

Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs New York Giants (Thanksgiving) Everyone who lost on Dallas last week is jumping right back on them because “it’s the Giants on Thanksgiving.” Dallas is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite this year and the Giants just beat someone (Indy) for the first time in forever. Stay away.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals Classic letdown spot. Steelers coming off emotional primetime win + short week road game + Bengals with burrow healthy and desperate. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS last six as home dog.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers Tampa is rolling, but Carolina has covered four of five at home and Bryce Young suddenly remembers how to throw. This smells like 27-23 Bucs cover by half a point and half the survivor field dies.

Contrarian Dart Throws (For When You’re Already the Last Man Standing in a 500-person pool)

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons Nobody’s picking the Chargers because “boring Harbaugh team on East Coast 1pm.” Meanwhile LAC is 7-0 ATS last seven road games and Atlanta has quit harder than my fantasy team in Week 9.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New York Jets Jets are dead. Aaron Rodgers looks 53 years old. Seattle needs this to stay alive in the NFC West. Ownership will be under 3%.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at New England Patriots Straight gut. Pats stink, Colts are frisky with Flacco, and nobody wants to pick either team. Perfect spot to differentiate.

Sources

Current spreads & win probabilities via DraftKings Sportsbook (Nov 25, 2025)
EPA & success rate stats via rbsdm.com
ATS records via Pro Football Reference
Ownership projections compiled from OfficeFootballPool.com and PoolGenius public data

What’s the single safest pick in Week 13?
Right now it’s the Eagles minus the points at Baltimore. They’re the most complete team in football and Baltimore is missing key pieces in the secondary. Detroit on Thanksgiving is a close second.
Should I save the Lions or Eagles for later?
In most pools, no. Both teams have soft schedules remaining (Detroit gets Chicago again Week 17, Philly gets Dallas and Giants). Use the big favorites while they’re still big favorites.
Is Thanksgiving week always this chaotic for survivor pools?
Yes. Short week, emotional spots, turkey comas — ownership gets wild and the “obvious” picks often fail. We’ve seen 40-50% of remaining entries die on a single Thanksgiving team get wiped out multiple times.