Is it safe to pick the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 for my survivor pool?

No, Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens is a poor choice. The Ravens are a playoff-caliber team, and divisional games are unpredictable. Cleveland’s 40% win probability and QB uncertainty make it a risky opener. Save your Browns pick for later weeks like 8 or 12.

What’s the best week to pick the Browns in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?

Week 14 vs. the Tennessee Titans (62% win probability) is the safest bet. The Titans’ rebuilding offense, led by a rookie QB, is a favorable matchup for Cleveland’s defense at home. Week 8 vs. the Patriots is another strong option.

Why should I avoid the Browns in divisional games for survivor pools?

The AFC North is the NFL’s toughest division, with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh all projected as playoff contenders. The Browns face these teams six times, and their low win probabilities (33–50%) make divisional games landmines for survivor pools.

cleveland browns

Team Overview

The Cleveland Browns enter 2025 with a cloud of uncertainty, primarily at quarterback, where Deshaun Watson’s injury concerns loom large. After a disappointing 3-14 season in 2024, the Browns’ defense remains a strength, anchored by Myles Garrett, but the offense needs a spark. For survivor pool players, Cleveland’s tough schedule and inconsistent offense make them a risky choice, but their defense could deliver in select matchups. This analysis dives into their roster, draft, schedule, and survivor pool fit to help you navigate your picks.

Team Roster Review

Offense

Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (QB26 in 2024, limited to 6 games), Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel (rookie), Shedeur Sanders (rookie). Watson’s Achilles injuries and inconsistent play create a messy QB room. The addition of two rookie QBs signals a potential rebuild, but none are proven starters yet.
Running Backs: Quinshon Judkins (rookie, 1,355 yards at Ohio State), Dylan Sampson (rookie), Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb (returning from injury). Judkins is a dynamic RB1 with breakaway speed, while Sampson adds pass-catching upside. Chubb’s health is a wildcard.
Wide Receivers: Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper (WR29, 5.02 ADP), Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman. The WR room lacks elite playmakers, with Cooper aging and Jeudy needing to step up as a true WR1.
Tight Ends: David Njoku (TE10, 5.02 ADP), Harold Fannin Jr. (rookie). Njoku is a reliable target, but the offense’s struggles limit his ceiling. Fannin adds depth in 12-personnel sets.
Offensive Line: Jedrick Wills Jr., Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin. Injuries and inconsistency plagued the line in 2024, ranking 22nd in run-blocking and 25th in pass protection. A shaky unit for 2025.

Defense

Defensive Line: Edge: Myles Garrett (14.5 sacks in 2024), Dalvin Tomlinson, Za’Darius Smith. Interior: Mason Graham (rookie, No. 5 overall pick), Quinton Jefferson. Garrett remains a game-wrecker, and Graham adds immediate interior disruption.
Linebackers: Carson Schwesinger (rookie, No. 33 overall), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jordan Hicks. Schwesinger’s speed and coverage skills bolster a versatile unit under Jim Schwartz’s aggressive scheme.
Secondary: CB: Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, Martin Emerson Jr. S: Grant Delpit, Juan Thornhill. A top-10 secondary with lockdown corners, though depth at safety is a concern.
Special Teams: K: Dustin Hopkins (85% FG in 2024). P: Corey Bojorquez. Returner: Dylan Sampson (rookie). Hopkins is reliable, and Sampson could add explosiveness on returns.

2025 Draft Class

Round 1, Pick 5: DT Mason Graham (Michigan) – 4.5 sacks in 2024, relentless motor. Immediate fit for Schwartz’s attacking front.
Round 2, Pick 33: LB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA) – Speedy coverage LB, 4.2-second 40-yard dash. Day-one starter.
Round 3, Pick 65: RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State) – 1,355 yards, 15 TDs in 2024. Power and speed to lead the backfield.
Round 4, Pick 101: TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Bowling Green) – 45 catches, 600 yards in 2024. Athletic pass-catcher for 12-personnel.
Round 5, Pick 137: QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) – 3,926 yards, 35 TDs in 2024. High-upside QB with long-term potential.
Round 5, Pick 150: RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee) – 1,200 yards, 12 TDs in 2024. Pass-catching RB with speed.
Round 7, Pick 223: CB Jermari Harris (Iowa) – Depth piece for a strong secondary.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

Offense: Ranked 28th in total yards (301.2 YPG), 30th in points (17.4 PPG). Watson’s limited play and a porous O-line led to a stagnant attack. Cooper and Njoku were bright spots, but the run game (94.6 YPG, 27th) lacked punch without Chubb.
Defense: Ranked 14th in yards allowed (334.5 YPG), 18th in points allowed (23.8 PPG). A step back from 2023’s elite unit, but Garrett’s dominance and a solid secondary kept them competitive.
2025 Outlook: The offense hinges on QB health and O-line improvement. Judkins and Chubb could spark the run game, but the passing attack needs consistency. Defensively, Graham and Schwesinger add juice, potentially returning the unit to top-10 status.

2025 Schedule Analysis

Week	Date	Opponent	Location	Time/Network	Win Probability	Survivor Pool Fit
1	Sun, 9/7	Baltimore Ravens	Home	8:20 PM, NBC	40%	Poor: Divisional rival with a stout offense; risky home opener.
2	Sun, 9/14	Baltimore Ravens	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	35%	Avoid: Back-to-back Ravens games, on the road, is a nightmare.
3	Sun, 9/21	Green Bay Packers	Away	1:00 PM, FOX	38%	Poor: Packers’ balanced offense exploits Browns’ weaknesses.
4	Sun, 9/28	Detroit Lions	Away	1:00 PM, FOX	35%	Avoid: Lions’ high-powered offense makes this a trap.
5	Sun, 10/5	Minnesota Vikings	Home	9:30 AM, NFL	45%	Risky: International game, Vikings’ defense is tough, but winnable.
6	Sun, 10/12	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	50%	Streamable: Divisional toss-up, home advantage helps.
7	Sun, Oct 19	Miami Dolphins	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	55%	Streamable: Dolphins struggle in cold weather; Browns’ defense could shine.
8	Sun, 10/26	New England Patriots	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	60%	Top-Tier Anchor: Patriots’ rebuild makes this a favorable road game.
9	Sun, 11/2	San Francisco 49ers	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	42%	Poor: 49ers’ offense and coaching edge make this tough.
10	Sun, 11/9	New York Jets	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	52%	Streamable: Jets’ roster turnover creates opportunity at home.
11	Sun, 11/16	Baltimore Ravens	Away	4:25 PM, CBS	33%	Avoid: Third Ravens matchup, on the road, is a death trap.
12	Sun, 11/23	Las Vegas Raiders	Home	4:05 PM, CBS	58%	Top-Tier Anchor: Raiders’ inconsistent offense is a good matchup.
13	Sun, Nov 30	San Francisco 49ers	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	38%	Poor: Cross-country trip against a contender is risky.
14	Sun, 12/7	Tennessee Titans	Home	1:00 PM, FOX	62%	Top-Tier Anchor: Titans’ rebuilding offense is exploitable.
15	Sun, 12/14	Chicago Bears	Home	1:00 PM, FOX	55%	Streamable: Bears’ offense could struggle against Browns’ D.
16	Sun, 12/21	Buffalo Bills	Away	1:00 PM, CBS	40%	Poor: Bills’ explosive offense and cold weather make this tough.
17	Sun, 12/28	Pittsburgh Steelers	Home	1:00 PM, CBS	50%	Streamable: Divisional rematch at home is a coin flip.
18	Sat, 1/4	Cincinnati Bengals	Away	1:00 PM, TBD	45%	Risky: Bengals’ offense could overwhelm Browns’ secondary.

*Win probabilities are estimated based on 2024 performance, roster changes, and schedule strength.

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Notes on Key Stats from 2024

Offensive Struggles: The Browns’ 17.4 PPG was among the league’s worst, with Watson’s 59.8% completion rate and 14 TDs in 14 games highlighting QB issues.
Defensive Prowess: Myles Garrett’s 14.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles kept the defense afloat, but the unit allowed 4.8 yards per carry (26th).
Turnover Margin: Cleveland’s -8 turnover margin (25th) crippled their chances, with Watson’s 9 INTs a major factor.
Schedule Strength: The Browns face the 13th-toughest schedule in 2025, with six games against top-10 Super Bowl favorites (Ravens, 49ers, Bills).

Survivor Pool Strategy

The Browns are not a top-tier survivor pool team due to their offensive uncertainty and brutal schedule. Their defense, led by Garrett and bolstered by rookies Graham and Schwesinger, gives them upset potential in home games against weaker offenses. However, their low win probabilities in most weeks make them a secondary option. Prioritize Top-Tier Anchor weeks where their defense can dominate, and use Streamable weeks as fallback options in smaller pools. Avoid divisional games and matchups against elite offenses.

Best Survivor Picks

Week 8 vs. New England Patriots (Away, 60%): The Patriots are in a rebuild, and Cleveland’s defense should overpower their offense. Low future value makes this a safe pick.
Week 12 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Home, 58%): The Raiders’ inconsistent offense and lack of a clear QB1 play into Cleveland’s defensive strengths at home.
Week 14 vs. Tennessee Titans (Home, 62%): The Titans’ rebuilding offense, led by rookie QB Cam Ward, is a favorable matchup for the Browns’ front seven.

Weeks to Avoid

Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens (35%): A road divisional game against a playoff-caliber Ravens team is a survivor pool death trap.
Week 4 at Detroit Lions (35%): The Lions’ high-powered offense will exploit Cleveland’s O-line and secondary on the road.
Week 11 at Baltimore Ravens (33%): Facing Baltimore a third time, on the road, is a guaranteed loss for survivor purposes.

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

QB Uncertainty: With Watson’s injury concerns and unproven rookies, the Browns’ offense could struggle early, making even favorable matchups risky. Monitor preseason QB decisions.
Home-Field Advantage: Cleveland’s defense performs better at home (allowed 21.2 PPG at home vs. 26.4 on the road in 2024). Prioritize home games for survivor picks.
Divisional Gauntlet: The AFC North is the NFL’s toughest division, with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh all projected as playoff contenders. Avoid divisional games unless desperate.
Late-Season Weather: Late-season home games (Weeks 14, 17) could benefit the Browns’ run-heavy approach and defense in cold Cleveland weather.

Final Verdict

The Cleveland Browns are a tricky survivor pool option for 2025. Their elite defense, bolstered by rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger, gives them upset potential in select home games, but their offensive woes and brutal schedule limit their appeal. Weeks 8, 12, and 14 offer the best chances for safe picks, particularly against rebuilding teams like the Patriots and Titans. Avoid divisional matchups and road games against top offenses. In smaller pools, the Browns can be a sneaky differentiator, but in larger pools, save them for desperate weeks or look elsewhere.

Is it safe to pick the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 for my survivor pool?
No, Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens is a poor choice. The Ravens are a playoff-caliber team, and divisional games are unpredictable. Cleveland’s 40% win probability and QB uncertainty make it a risky opener. Save your Browns pick for later weeks like 8 or 12.
What’s the best week to pick the Browns in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?
Week 14 vs. the Tennessee Titans (62% win probability) is the safest bet. The Titans’ rebuilding offense, led by a rookie QB, is a favorable matchup for Cleveland’s defense at home. Week 8 vs. the Patriots is another strong option.
Why should I avoid the Browns in divisional games for survivor pools?
The AFC North is the NFL’s toughest division, with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh all projected as playoff contenders. The Browns face these teams six times, and their low win probabilities (33–50%) make divisional games landmines for survivor pools.