Denver broncos
Updated June 17, 2025
Team Overview
The Denver Broncos enter the 2025 season with momentum after snapping a nine-year playoff drought in 2024, fueled by a stellar defense led by Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II and a promising rookie campaign from QB Bo Nix. The recent signing of veteran running back J.K. Dobbins, alongside rookie RJ Harvey, bolsters a dynamic backfield, complementing strategic free-agent additions and a solid draft. Aiming to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs’ AFC West dominance, Denver’s favorable home games and defensive prowess make them a compelling mid-tier survivor pool option, though their tough divisional slate demands precise timing.
Team Roster Review
Offense
- Quarterback: Bo Nix (3,811 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs in 2024), Zach Wilson, Jake Haener (UDFA). Nix’s rookie season showcased his command of Sean Payton’s system, offering stability and growth potential.
- Running Backs: RJ Harvey (2nd-round pick, 2025), J.K. Dobbins (free agent), Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie. Harvey, a dynamic three-down back, pairs with Dobbins, who signed a one-year, $2.75M deal (up to $5.25M with incentives) after a 905-yard, 9-TD season with the Chargers in 2024. Dobbins adds veteran explosiveness (5.2 YPC career) and third-down reliability, though his injury history (ACL 2021, Achilles 2023, MCL 2024) requires monitoring. Estime offers short-yardage power, while McLaughlin and Badie compete for roles.
- Wide Receivers: Courtland Sutton (1,032 yards, 10 TDs in 2024), Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant (3rd-round pick), Trent Sherfield Sr., Michael Bandy, A.T. Perry. Sutton remains the WR1, with Mims and Franklin providing deep threats. Bryant’s size and route-running add depth.
- Tight Ends: Evan Engram (free agent, two-time Pro Bowler), Greg Dulcich, Adam Trautman, Caleb Lohner (7th-round pick). Engram’s addition bolsters the passing game, while Lohner is a developmental project.
- Offensive Line: LT Garett Bolles, LG Ben Powers, C Quinn Meinerz, RG Alex Forsyth, RT Mike McGlinchey, backups Calvin Throckmorton, Nick Gargiulo, UDFAs Xavier Truss, Clay Webb, Joe Michalski. Meinerz is a top-tier guard, but depth battles loom.
Defense
- Defensive Line: Edge: Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, Baron Browning, John Franklin-Myers, Que Robinson (4th-round pick). Interior: Zach Allen, D.J. Jones, Malcolm Roach, Sai’vion Jones (3rd-round pick). Led the NFL in sacks (57) in 2024, with Jones adding interior pressure.
- Linebackers: Dre Greenlaw (free agent), Alex Singleton, Drew Sanders, Cody Barton, Justin Strnad. Greenlaw’s run-stopping and Singleton’s recovery from injury solidify this unit, though Sanders is a wildcard.
- Secondary: CBs: Pat Surtain II (DPOY 2024), Riley Moss, Ja’Quan McMillian, Jahdae Barron (1st-round pick). Safeties: Talanoa Hufanga (free agent), Brandon Jones, P.J. Locke, Sam Franklin. Elite unit with Surtain and Hufanga; Barron’s versatility adds flexibility.
- Special Teams: K Wil Lutz, P Jeremy Crawshaw (6th-round pick), LS Mitchell Fraboni, Zach Triner. Crawshaw’s power punting fits Denver’s altitude advantage.
2025 Draft Class
- Round 1, Pick 20: CB Jahdae Barron (Texas) – 4.39 40-yard dash, versatile nickelback. Immediate starter with slot/safety flexibility.
- Round 2, Pick 51: RB RJ Harvey (UCF) – Dynamic three-down back, replaces McLaughlin’s role.
- Round 3, Pick 74: WR Pat Bryant (Illinois) – 6’3”, physical receiver with elite route-running. Depth with starter potential.
- Round 3, Pick 101: DE Sai’vion Jones (LSU) – Explosive pass rusher, adds depth and future starter potential.
- Round 4, Pick 122: EDGE Que Robinson (Alabama) – Special teams ace with pass-rush upside (5 sacks in 163 snaps).
- Round 6, Pick 216: P Jeremy Crawshaw (Florida) – Powerful punter, ideal for Denver’s altitude.
- Round 7, Pick 241: TE Caleb Lohner (Utah) – Raw, high-upside project transitioning from basketball.
Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)
- Offense: Ranked 19th in points per game (21.4), 17th in total yards (335.2). Nix led all rookie QBs with 3,811 yards and 26 TDs. Run game struggled (4.0 YPC, 23rd), but Engram and Harvey should boost efficiency.
- Defense: Ranked 1st in defensive EPA and sacks (57), 3rd in points allowed (17.8). Surtain’s DPOY season (4 INTs, 11 PBUs) anchored a ball-hawking secondary.
- 2025 Outlook: Offense should climb to top-15 with Nix’s growth, Engram’s versatility, and Harvey’s dynamism. Defense remains elite, potentially top-3 again with Barron and Greenlaw additions.
2025 Schedule Analysis
The offense is poised to climb into the top-15 with Nix’s growth, Engram’s versatility, and a revitalized run game led by Harvey and Dobbins. Dobbins’ explosiveness and third-down prowess enhance play-action opportunities, though his health remains a concern. The defense, bolstered by Barron and Greenlaw, should remain a top-3 unit, ensuring a high floor. With a dynamic backfield and elite defense, Denver’s ceiling rises, making them a stronger survivor pool candidate in favorable matchups.
| Week | Day, Date | Opponent | Location | Time/Network | Win Probability % | Survivor Pool Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Sep 7 | Tennessee Titans | Home | 4:05 PM ET, FOX | 68% | Streamable: Titans start rookie QB Cam Ward against Denver’s top defense. Solid home opener. |
| 2 | Sun, Sep 14 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 1:00 PM ET, CBS | 55% | Avoid: Colts’ QB uncertainty and Denver’s road game make this risky. |
| 3 | Sun, Sep 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 4:05 PM ET, CBS | 48% | Avoid: Divisional road game against a playoff-caliber Chargers team. |
| 4 | Sun, Sep 28 | New York Giants | Home | 1:00 PM ET, CBS | 72% | Top-Tier Anchor: Giants’ inconsistent offense faces Denver’s elite defense at home. |
| 5 | Sun, Oct 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 1:00 PM ET, CBS | 42% | Avoid: Super Bowl LIX champs with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are a trap. |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 12 | New York Jets | Away | 9:30 AM ET, NFL | 60% | Streamable: Jets’ aging roster and London game favor Denver’s defense. |
| 7 | Sun, Oct 19 | New York Giants | Away | 1:00 PM ET, CBS | 58% | Avoid: Road game against Giants; save Denver for better spots. |
| 8 | Sun, Oct 26 | Denver Broncos | Bye Week | - | - | - |
| 9 | Sun, Nov 2 | Houston Texans | Away | 1:00 PM ET, FOX | 45% | Avoid: Texans’ playoff pedigree and Stingley’s coverage make this tough. |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 9 | Las Vegas Raiders | Home | 1:00 PM ET, CBS | 65% | Streamable: Raiders’ QB struggles play into Denver’s defensive strengths. |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 4:25 PM ET, CBS | 40% | Avoid: Divisional rival with Patrick Mahomes is a survivor pool killer. |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 23 | Cleveland Browns | Home | 4:05 PM ET, CBS | 70% | Top-Tier Anchor: Browns’ inconsistent offense faces Denver’s pass rush at home. |
| 13 | Sun, Nov 30 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 4:25 PM ET, CBS | 52% | Avoid: Divisional home game, but Chargers’ talent makes it dicey. |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 4:05 PM ET, CBS | 58% | Streamable: Raiders on the road are vulnerable to Denver’s defense. |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 14 | Green Bay Packers | Home | 4:25 PM ET, CBS | 55% | Avoid: Jordan Love and Packers’ offense pose a threat. |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | 4:05 PM ET, FOX | 67% | Streamable: Jaguars’ young roster struggles against Denver’s defense. |
| 17 | Thu, Dec 25 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 4:30 PM ET, NETFLIX | 35% | Avoid: Christmas Day road game against the Chiefs is a no-go. |
| 18 | Sat, Jan 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 1:00 PM ET, TBD | 50% | Avoid: Divisional road finale with playoff implications is too risky. |
*Win probabilities are estimates based on 2024 performance, draft/free agency moves, and opponent strength.
Notes on Key Stats from 2024
- Defensive Dominance: Denver led the NFL in defensive EPA and sacks (57), with a +12 turnover differential (3rd). Surtain’s 4 INTs and 11 PBUs were pivotal.
- Offensive Growth: Nix’s 3,811 yards and 26 TDs were tops among rookie QBs, but the run game lagged (4.0 YPC). Harvey and Engram should address this.
- Home Advantage: Denver went 6-2 at home, leveraging altitude and crowd noise. Expect similar in 2025 with five primetime games.
Survivor Pool Strategy
The Broncos are a mid-tier survivor pool option with a top-3 defense and a favorable home schedule, enhanced by a dynamic backfield featuring Dobbins and Harvey. Their ability to dominate weaker offenses (e.g., Giants, Browns) at Mile High makes them ideal for specific weeks, with Dobbins’ addition boosting offensive reliability. However, their AFC West gauntlet (Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders) and tough road games (Eagles, Texans) require cautious planning. Save Denver for home matchups against non-playoff teams to maximize win probability while preserving high-value picks like Kansas City for later.
Best Survivor Picks
- Week 4 vs. New York Giants (72%): Denver’s defense should feast on the Giants’ inconsistent offense at home. A safe anchor pick early in the season.
- Week 12 vs. Cleveland Browns (70%): Cleveland’s QB uncertainty and Denver’s pass rush make this a strong home pick late in the pool.
- Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (67%): The Jaguars’ young roster struggles on the road against Denver’s elite secondary.
Weeks to Avoid
- Week 3 at Los Angeles Chargers: Divisional road game against a playoff-caliber team with Justin Herbert and rookie RB Omarion Hampton.
- Week 5 at Philadelphia Eagles: Facing the Super Bowl champs with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts is a trap.
- Week 11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes and a divisional rivalry make this a risky pick, even at home.
- Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs: Christmas Day road game against the Chiefs is a survivor pool death trap.
Additional Survivor Pool Considerations
- Home-Field Edge: Denver’s 6-2 home record in 2024 and altitude advantage make home games (Weeks 4, 10, 12, 16) prime targets.
- Defensive Matchups: Denver’s sack-heavy defense thrives against immobile QBs or weak offensive lines (e.g., Giants, Browns, Jaguars). Avoid mobile QBs like Hurts or Mahomes.
- Schedule Flow: Denver’s bye in Week 8 allows recovery before a soft stretch (Weeks 9–12). Use them before tougher December games.
- Future Value: Denver’s mid-tier status means they’re less likely to be heavily picked, offering contrarian value in larger pools.
Final Verdict
The Denver Broncos are a sneaky survivor pool asset for 2025, thanks to their elite defense and favorable home matchups against weaker opponents like the Giants (Week 4), Browns (Week 12), and Jaguars (Week 16). The addition of J.K. Dobbins alongside RJ Harvey strengthens the run game, increasing offensive stability and boosting Denver’s win probability in these games. Their top-tier defense, led by Pat Surtain II and bolstered by free agents Hufanga and Greenlaw, ensures a high floor against non-playoff teams. However, survivor pool players must dodge their brutal AFC West slate and tough road games against the Eagles and Texans. Pick Denver in Weeks 4 or 12 for safe, high-probability wins, and save your elite picks for teams like Kansas City or Philadelphia.
What are the best weeks to pick the Denver Broncos in a 2025 NFL Survivor Pool?
Weeks 4 (vs. Giants), 12 (vs. Browns), and 16 (vs. Jaguars) offer the best win probabilities (67–72%) due to Denver’s home advantage and elite defense facing weaker offenses.
Why should I avoid picking the Broncos against the Chiefs in 2025?
The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are a divisional juggernaut. Weeks 11 and 17 are risky due to Kansas City’s offensive firepower and Denver’s lower win probability (35–40%).
How does Denver’s defense impact their 2025 survivor pool value?
Denver’s top-ranked defense (1st in EPA, 57 sacks in 2024) dominates weaker offenses, making home games against teams like the Giants and Browns safe picks.
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