Chicago Bears

Team Overview

The Chicago Bears enter the 2025 NFL season with a revamped identity under new head coach Ben Johnson, whose offensive prowess from Detroit promises to unlock quarterback Caleb Williams and a bolstered skill group. After a disappointing 5-12 campaign in 2024, the Bears made strategic free-agent signings and a strong draft to address both offensive and defensive deficiencies. For survivor pool players, the Bears offer intriguing midseason opportunities, particularly at home, but their tough divisional slate and early tests demand careful consideration.

Team Roster Review

Offense

• Quarterback: Caleb Williams (3,191 yards, 17 TDs, 10 INTs in 2024), Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum, Austin Reed. Williams, the 2024 No. 1 pick, showed flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency. Johnson’s scheme should elevate his efficiency, with Bagent as a capable backup.
• Running Backs: D’Andre Swift (768 yards, 3.8 YPC in 2024), Roschon Johnson, Kyle Monangai (rookie), Travis Homer. Swift remains the lead back, but his low YPC reflects a shaky 2024 offensive line. Monangai, a seventh-round pick, adds physicality and could steal touches.
• Wide Receivers: DJ Moore (788 yards, 5 TDs in 2024), Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III (rookie), Olamide Zaccheaus, Devin Duvernay, Tyler Scott. Moore and Odunze form a dynamic duo, with Burden’s explosive slot presence adding YAC potential. This group gives Williams versatile targets.
• Tight Ends: Cole Kmet (626 yards, 4 TDs in 2024), Colston Loveland (rookie), Durham Smythe, Stephen Carlson. Kmet is a reliable veteran, and Loveland, a first-round pick, brings elite receiving skills, creating matchup nightmares in 12-personnel sets.
• Offensive Line: LT Kiran Amegadjie, LG Teven Jenkins, C Coleman Shelton, RG Nate Davis, RT Ozzy Trapilo (rookie), Luke Newman (rookie). The Bears invested heavily in the line, with Amegadjie and Trapilo adding youth and athleticism. Pass protection (32nd in 2024) must improve to maximize Johnson’s play-calling.

Defense

• Defensive Line: Edge: Austin Booker, Jacob Martin, Dominique Robinson. Interior: Grady Jarrett (free agent), Gervon Dexter (5 sacks in 2024), Andrew Billings, Shemar Turner (rookie). Dexter’s breakout and Jarrett’s addition bolster the interior, but edge rush remains a question mark.
• Linebackers: Tremaine Edmunds (104 tackles in 2024), Ruben Hyppolite II (rookie), T.J. Edwards. Edmunds and Edwards anchor a solid unit, with Hyppolite’s speed adding special teams value and depth.
• Secondary: CB Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Zah Frazier (rookie). S Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Elijah Hicks, Jonathan Owens. The secondary, led by Johnson’s All-Pro play, is a strength, with Frazier’s length and speed adding depth.
• Special Teams: K Cairo Santos (8/9 from 50+ in 2024), P Tory Taylor (47.7 gross avg.), LS Patrick Scales. Taylor’s elite punting and Santos’ reliability at Soldier Field are assets, though the unit had procedural penalties in 2024.

2025 Draft Class

• Round 1, Pick 10: TE Colston Loveland (Michigan) – Dynamic pass-catcher, 96th percentile in yards per route run. Immediate impact in Johnson’s offense.
• Round 2, Pick 39: WR Luther Burden III (Missouri) – Explosive slot receiver, 676 yards in 2024 despite injuries. YAC specialist.
• Round 2, Pick 56: OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College) – Athletic tackle with swing versatility, strong pass protection skills.
• Round 2, Pick 62: DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M) – High-motor run-stopper, 7.9% run-stop rate. Adds depth to interior.
• Round 4, Pick 132: LB Ruben Hyppolite II (Maryland) – Speedy linebacker, 425 career special teams snaps. Depth and special teams contributor.
• Round 5, Pick 169: CB Zah Frazier (UTSA) – 6’3”, 4.36 40-yard dash, 85.9 PFF grade in 2024. Fits Allen’s press-heavy scheme.
• Round 6, Pick 195: OG Luke Newman (Michigan State) – Versatile lineman, started at guard after FCS All-American at tackle. Depth piece.
• Round 7, Pick 233: RB Kyle Monangai (Rutgers) – 2,541 rushing yards over 2023-24, physical runner with pass-blocking skills.

Team Offense and Defense Metrics (2024 Season)

• Offense: 283.5 total YPG (32nd), 181.5 passing YPG (31st), 102.0 rushing YPG (25th). The Bears’ offense was abysmal, hampered by poor play-calling and offensive line struggles. Johnson’s arrival and new weapons signal a 2025 rebound.
• Defense: 354.3 YPG allowed (26th), 13 fumble recoveries (t-1st), 26 defensive penalties (1st, fewest). The defense had bright spots (Dexter, Johnson) but faltered late, ranking 28th in success rate from Weeks 9-18.
• 2025 Outlook: Offense should climb to mid-tier (15-20th) with Johnson’s scheme and additions like Loveland and Burden. Defense, under Dennis Allen, could crack the top 15 if the front improves run-stopping consistency.

2025 Schedule Analysis

*Win probabilities are estimates based on 2024 performance, roster changes, and opponent strength.

Notes on Key Stats from 2024

• The Bears’ offense was the NFL’s worst, averaging 283.5 YPG, with a league-low 181.5 passing YPG.
• Defensively, they led the league with 13 fumble recoveries and had the fewest penalties (26), showing discipline.
• Punter Tory Taylor set franchise records with a 47.7 gross average and 41.6 net average, flipping field position effectively.
• Gervon Dexter’s 19 QB hits led the team, ranking fifth among interior linemen, a bright spot for the defensive line.
• Cairo Santos’ 8/9 from 50+ yards was a franchise record, crucial for close games at Soldier Field.

Survivor Pool Strategy

The Bears are a Streamable team for 2025 survivor pools, offering three clear anchor weeks (6, 10, 15) where home matchups against weaker or rebuilding opponents align with their improved roster. Their offense should take a step forward under Ben Johnson, making them more reliable in favorable spots. However, their brutal divisional schedule (six games against Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay) and early road tests make them risky in several weeks. Save the Bears for mid-to-late season home games to maximize value, as their early schedule is fraught with traps.

Best Survivor Picks

• Week 6 vs. Washington Commanders (Home): The Commanders’ offense, likely led by a young QB, faces a tough test against Chicago’s secondary at Soldier Field. A 65% win probability and Johnson’s play-calling make this a safe anchor.
• Week 10 vs. New York Giants (Home): The Giants’ rebuilding roster and lack of offensive firepower make this a prime 70% win probability spot. Chicago’s pass rush and home crowd should seal it.
• Week 15 vs. Cleveland Browns (Home): Late in the season, the Browns’ offense often sputters. With a 68% win probability, this is a low-risk home game for the Bears.

Weeks to Avoid

• Week 2 at Detroit Lions: The Lions’ high-octane offense and home-field advantage make this a dangerous road game (45% win probability).
• Week 3 at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas’ offensive weapons and road disadvantage spell trouble (40% win probability).
• Week 13 at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles’ elite roster and playoff push make this a brutal road matchup (38% win probability).
• Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers: A late-season divisional rivalry game with playoff implications is too unpredictable (48% win probability).

Additional Survivor Pool Considerations

• Home-Field Advantage: Soldier Field’s weather and crowd noise amplify the Bears’ chances in Weeks 6, 10, and 15, especially against non-cold-weather teams.
• Divisional Risks: Six divisional games (Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay) are coin-flips at best, as NFC North matchups are notoriously tight.
• Caleb Williams’ Growth: If Williams thrives in Johnson’s system, the Bears could outperform expectations, making them a sneaky upset pick in close games (e.g., Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh).
• Late-Season Momentum: The Bears’ defense, with Allen’s scheme and new additions, could peak late, making Week 15 a safer bet than early-season games.

Final Verdict

The Chicago Bears are a solid mid-tier option for 2025 NFL Survivor Pools, with three home games (Weeks 6, 10, 15) offering high win probabilities against manageable opponents. Ben Johnson’s offensive overhaul and a disciplined defense under Dennis Allen give the Bears upside, but their tough divisional slate and early road challenges limit their reliability. Use them strategically in Weeks 6 or 10 to preserve stronger teams for later, and avoid divisional traps. The Bears’ improved roster makes them a calculated risk worth taking in the right spot.