Hey there, football fans! If you’re looking to spice up your NFL season with some friendly competition, a survivor pool is the way to go. It’s simple, thrilling, and keeps you glued to the games every week. In this blog post, I’ll walk you through what a survivor pool is, how to play, and share my top pick for each week based on the best matchups. Plus, I’ll throw in some example scenarios and a strategic week-by-week approach to help you dominate your pool. Let’s dive in!

What Is a Survivor Pool?

A survivor pool (sometimes called an eliminator pool) is a fun betting game where you pick one NFL team to win each week. Sounds easy, right? Here’s the catch: you can only pick each team once during the entire season. If your team loses, you’re out (unless your pool allows a second chance, which some do). The last person standing wins the pot or bragging rights, depending on your group’s setup.

The key to winning is picking smart. You don’t just want to pick the “best” team every week—sometimes it’s about saving strong teams for later and picking matchups where one team has a clear edge. That’s where my weekly matchup picks and strategic approach come in!

How to Play a Survivor Pool

Here’s a step-by-step guide to get you started:

• Join or Create a Pool: You can join a survivor pool through sites like ESPN, Yahoo, or even set one up with friends using a spreadsheet. Decide if there’s a buy-in (for cash prizes) or if it’s just for fun.
• Pick One Team Each Week: Before the games start (usually by Thursday night), submit your pick for a team you think will win their game that week. You can’t pick the same team twice in the season.
• Check the Results: If your team wins, you move on to the next week. If they lose, you’re eliminated (unless your pool has a “strike” system where you get a second chance).
• Repeat Until You Win (or Lose): Keep picking each week until you’re the last one standing or until the pool ends (some pools have a set end date).

Pro tip: Pay attention to the schedule! Some weeks have tricky matchups, and you don’t want to waste a strong team like the Kansas City Chiefs on a week when they’re facing a tough opponent.

Why Matchups Matter

Each week, I’ll pick a team based on the matchup—meaning I’m looking at which team has the best chance to win their game based on their opponent, injuries, home/away status, and recent performance. I’m not just picking the “best” team; I’m picking the smartest choice for that week to keep you alive in your pool.

For example, in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles are playing the New York Giants at home. The Eagles are coming off a strong season, while the Giants are rebuilding. That’s a matchup where the Eagles are likely to dominate, making them a great pick.

Mid-Season (Weeks 5-10)

With more data to work with, you can make sharper picks, but you've got to manage your remaining teams carefully.

• Week 5: This is a good time to use "middle-tier" playoff contenders before their schedules get brutal. Teams with 2-2 or 3-1 records often treat these games as must-wins.
• Week 6: Bye weeks start messing with prep time. Pick well-coached teams coming off a bye—they're rested and ready—against teams grinding through their third straight game.
• Weeks 7-8: Look for teams playing opponents on losing streaks, especially if those teams are dealing with injuries to key players or locker room drama. A struggling team is a safe bet with an opponent.
• Weeks 9-10: Weather starts playing a role in outdoor stadiums. Dome teams like the Lions or Bucs have an edge when hosting cold-weather opponents who aren't used to the controlled environment.

Week 5: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills - Sunday, October 5th, 8:20 PM EDT

• Pick: Buffalo Bills
• Why: The Bills' 75.6% home win rate (31-10, 2020-2024) and 28.7 points per game at home in 2024 should dominate against New England's 1-7 road record and 13.5 points per game on the road in 2024. This primetime divisional matchup showcases Buffalo as a "middle-tier" playoff contender in a must-win situation, aligning perfectly with our Week 5 strategy. Buffalo's pass defense (185.7 yards allowed per game at home) should contain New England's limited passing attack.

Week 6: Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens - Sunday, October 12th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Baltimore Ravens
• Why: Baltimore's 72.5% home win rate (29-11, 2020-2024) and 29.4 points per game at home in 2024 give them a decisive edge against a Rams team traveling across the country. The Ravens' defense allowed just 17.3 points per game at home, while their 178.8 rushing yards per game offense should exploit the Rams' 4.4 yards per carry allowed on the road. Baltimore's coaching advantage aligns with our Week 6 strategy of targeting well-prepared teams.

Week 7: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals - Thursday, October 16th, 8:15 PM EDT

• Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
• Why: The Bengals' 65.9% home win rate (27-14, 2020-2024) and 26.2 points per game at home in 2024 make them formidable on Thursday night. Pittsburgh's offensive line struggles (ranked 26th in 2024) should be exploited by Cincinnati's pass rush. This follows our Week 7 strategy of targeting opponents potentially on losing streaks, as Pittsburgh's difficult early schedule could have them reeling by mid-October.

Week 8: New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, October 26th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Detroit Lions
• Why: The Lions host the Giants in a favorable non-divisional matchup. Detroit's 70.7% home win rate (29-12, 2020-2024) and 31.2 points per game at home in 2024 in their controlled dome environment should overwhelm New York's struggling offense that averaged just 16.8 points per game on the road. This follows our Week 8 strategy of targeting teams potentially dealing with personnel issues or losing streaks.

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders - Sunday, November 2nd, 8:20 PM EDT

• Pick: Washington Commanders
• Why: Washington's improved 63.4% home win rate in 2024 and primetime home-field advantage position them well against Seattle's 4-4 road record. The Commanders' 24.3 points per game at home should exploit Seattle's 26.7 points allowed per game on the road. This Sunday night matchup follows our Week 9 strategy of considering weather factors, as Seattle makes the cross-country trip to face potentially challenging East Coast conditions in November.

Week 10: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos - Thursday, November 6th, 8:15 PM EDT

• Pick: Denver Broncos
• Why: Despite being on the road, Denver's defense allowed just 20.4 points per game away from home in 2024, which should contain Las Vegas's limited offense that averaged 19.7 points per game. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 6 matchups against the Raiders. Denver's coaching staff has demonstrated superior Thursday night preparation, aligning with our strategy of accounting for shortened preparation time in mid-season matchups.
  

Late Season (Weeks 11-18)

The final stretch is where strategy matters most—every pick has to be perfect.

• Weeks 11-13: Teams battling for playoff spots are usually safe bets, especially at home against teams already out of the race. Motivation makes a huge difference here.
• Weeks 14-15: Focus on specific matchup advantages—like a team with an elite pass rush facing a weak offensive line or a strong running game against a porous run defense—over just picking the "better" team.
• Weeks 16-18: Motivation is everything now. Playoff-bound teams might rest starters, and teams out of contention might tank for draft picks. Pick teams still fighting for playoff seeding against opponents with nothing on the line.

Week 11: Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Atlanta Falcons
• Why: The Falcons' 63.4% home win rate (26-15, 2020-2024) and 24.8 points per game at home in 2024 should easily handle Carolina's league-worst road performance (1-7 in 2024). Atlanta's playoff positioning becomes crucial by Week 11, providing the motivation edge our strategy emphasizes. The Falcons' 206.7 passing yards per game at home should exploit Carolina's secondary that allowed 7.6 yards per attempt on the road.

Week 12: Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers - Monday, November 24th, 8:15 PM EDT

• Pick: San Francisco 49ers
• Why: The 49ers' 75.6% home win rate (31-10, 2020-2024) and 28.6 points per game at home in 2024 should dominate a Panthers team likely eliminated from playoff contention. San Francisco's 185.4 passing yards allowed per game at home will contain Carolina's limited passing attack. This Monday night game aligns with our Week 11-13 strategy of leveraging playoff-motivated teams against eliminated opponents.

Week 13: San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns - Sunday, November 30th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Cleveland Browns
• Why: The Browns' strong home-field advantage (67.9% home win rate, 2022-2024) and elite defense that allowed just 18.6 points per game at home should contain San Francisco's attack. Cleveland's 149.3 rushing yards per game at home exploits San Francisco's potential fatigue from cross-country travel following their Monday night game. This follows our late-season strategy of targeting teams with playoff motivation and specific matchup advantages.

Week 14: New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday, December 7th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Why: Tampa Bay's 68.3% home win rate (28-13, 2020-2024) and 26.4 points per game at home in 2024 should overcome the Saints. The Bucs' pass rush (48 sacks in 2024) targets New Orleans' offensive line that allowed 39 sacks. This aligns with our Week 14-15 strategy of focusing on specific matchup advantages rather than just picking the "better" team. Tampa's playoff positioning motivation should be peaking in this divisional clash.

Week 15: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots - Sunday, December 14th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: New England Patriots
• Why: In a surprise pick, New England's December home-field advantage comes into play. The Patriots' 13-7 record at home in December (2018-2024) demonstrates their cold-weather prowess. This strategic pick follows our late-season approach of considering specific situational advantages. New England's motivation as a potential spoiler against a playoff-bound Bills team provides the edge in what could be challenging winter conditions.

Week 16: Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, December 21st, 4:05 PM EDT

• Pick: Arizona Cardinals
• Why: The Cardinals' 4.1 yards per carry allowed at home in 2024 should contain Atlanta's rushing attack. Arizona's playoff push motivation versus Atlanta's potential elimination by Week 16 aligns with our late-season strategy. The Cardinals' 85.7% home win rate when leading at halftime in 2024 suggests they can maintain control once established, making them a solid pick in this crucial window.

Week 17: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs - Thursday, December 25th, 8:15 PM EDT

• Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
• Why: The Chiefs' 80.4% home win rate (41-10, 2020-2024) and 29.2 points per game at home make them dominant in this Christmas night showcase. Kansas City's 17.3 points allowed per game at home should stifle Denver's attack that struggled to 18.7 points per game on the road. This holiday primetime game follows our Week 16-18 strategy of selecting teams with clear playoff seeding incentives against potentially compromised opponents.

Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, January 4th, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Indianapolis Colts
• Why: The Colts' 35.3% improvement in scoring at home vs. road in 2024 gives them a significant advantage in this season finale. Indianapolis's potential playoff scenario motivation versus Jacksonville's possible elimination follows our Week 18 strategy of focusing on motivation factors. The Colts' 27.3 points per game at home against divisional opponents in 2024 suggests they perform well in these high-stakes scenarios.
  

Alternative Options for Flexibility

If any of these picks become less favorable due to injuries or other factors, consider these alternatives:

Week 4 Alternative: New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins - Monday, September 29th, 7:15 PM EDT

• Pick: Miami Dolphins
• Why: Miami's home dominance (68.3% win rate, 2020-2024) and early-season offensive explosiveness (averaged 29.3 points in home games during September/October 2024) make them a strong alternative. The Dolphins' speed-based offense thrives in the warm South Florida conditions, and the Jets have historically struggled in Miami, going 2-8 in their last 10 visits. The Monday night spotlight typically favors home teams (59.7% win rate in Monday night home games since 2020), and Miami's 26.7 points per game at home against AFC East opponents gives them a divisional advantage despite our general strategy of avoiding divisional games early.

Week 10 Alternative: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers - Sunday, November 9th, 8:20 PM EDT

• Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
• Why: The Chargers' revamped offense averaged 24.7 points per game at home in 2024 and should thrive against Pittsburgh's secondary that allowed 245.3 passing yards per game on the road. Los Angeles has a 63.8% win rate in primetime home games since 2020, and the Steelers face the added challenge of cross-country travel to the West Coast. By Week 10, the Chargers' playoff positioning should provide additional motivation while Pittsburgh potentially fades after a tough mid-season schedule. The Chargers' defensive front, which generated 43 sacks in 2024, should pressure Pittsburgh's quarterback who was sacked 38 times in 2024.

Week 13 Alternative: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys - Thursday, November 27th, 4:30 PM EDT

• Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
• Why: This Thanksgiving afternoon showcase features a Chiefs team with an 80.4% home win rate (41-10, 2020-2024) and 29.2 points per game at home in 2024. Kansas City's 7-1 record against NFC opponents at home since 2020 demonstrates their cross-conference dominance. The Chiefs' defensive front should exploit Dallas's offensive line that allowed 36 sacks in 2024. Traditionally, home teams in Thanksgiving games hold a 62.5% win rate since 2015, and Andy Reid's 75.8% win rate with extra preparation time gives Kansas City another edge. The holiday atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium provides an intimidation factor against Dallas's 4-4 road record in 2024.

Week 16 Alternative: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears - Sunday, December 21st, 1:00 PM EDT

• Pick: Green Bay Packers
• Why: Green Bay has dominated this historic rivalry, winning 9 of the last 10 matchups against Chicago at Soldier Field. The Packers' 73.2% win rate (30-11, 2020-2024) and 27.8 points per game at home in 2024 give them a significant edge. Chicago's offense struggled in cold-weather road games, averaging just 14.3 points in December road games in 2024. Green Bay's rushing attack, which averaged 149.7 yards per game at home, should control the clock against Chicago's defense that allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the road. The Packers have historically elevated their performance in December home games with playoff implications, posting an 82.4% win rate in such scenarios since 2020.

Disclaimer: These picks represent early predictions based on the official 2025-2026 NFL schedule and historical performance metrics from 2020-2024. Actual team performance, injuries, coaching changes, and weather conditions will significantly impact game outcomes. Always monitor injury reports, weather forecasts, and playoff implications before finalizing your weekly selections, especially in the later portion of the season when motivation becomes the critical factor. Remember that Week 18 games are particularly unpredictable as playoff-bound teams may rest starters while eliminated teams may be more motivated by pride or evaluating young talent.

Tips for Survivor Pool Success

• Plan Ahead: Use the week-by-week approach to map out when to use top teams. Don’t burn the Chiefs or Eagles in Week 1 unless you have to.
• Check Injuries: A star quarterback or key player being out can flip a game.
• Consider Home/Away: Home teams often have an edge, especially in loud stadiums.
• Avoid Risky Picks Early: Save your gambles for later when the pool is smaller.
• Join Multiple Pools: If one pool knocks you out, you’ve got another shot.

Before diving into our week-by-week picks, it's worth taking a moment to understand the fundamentals of survivor pools. If you're new to this format, our beginner's guide provides a comprehensive introduction to the basics. Veterans looking to refine their approach should review the official rules to ensure you're playing optimally within your pool's specific guidelines. What makes survivor pools so addictive isn't just the elimination format, but also the strategic elements and weekly excitement they generate throughout the season.

Success in survivor pools requires more than just picking the biggest favorite each week. Effective team research techniques can dramatically improve your odds, while utilizing the right analytical tools gives you an edge over the competition. When everyone seems to be gravitating toward the same pick, understanding when to make contrarian selections can separate you from the crowd and potentially save premium teams for later.

This 2025 season brings unique challenges and opportunities, as outlined in our season preview. The most successful players develop a comprehensive season plan rather than making isolated weekly decisions. Remember that the mathematical win probability factors should heavily influence your selections, and your approach should vary significantly based on whether you're competing in a small or large pool.

The picks highlighted below represent our early analysis of the 2025 NFL schedule, combining historical performance metrics with strategic principles that have proven successful in previous seasons. Use this guide as your foundation, but always adapt to changing circumstances as the season unfolds.